Inspirational article

Stupidly insist on the same, always see the results of Niubi


Stupidly insist on the same, always see the results of Niubi

If the success rate of one thing is 1%, what is the probability of at least one success over 100 times? Alternate answers: 10%, 23%, 38%, 63% - the correct answer is 63%. Calculation method: Success rate is 1%, failure rate is 99%, try 100 times, all failure rate is 99% of the 100th power is about 37%, at least once, that is 63%. The seemingly impossible thing will continue to improve in the repeated attempts - the same as stupidity, always see the results of the bull.

This is a daily share shared by colleagues in the RTX group today. At first glance, I feel that there is no problem. Because the calculation is based solely on the mathematical probability, the answer to the above question is completely correct. However, considering the actual operation process, there will be some interference factors, which may affect the success rate of each attempt. We can discuss it in depth.

1. If there is a completely uncontrollable factor in this matter, that is, if the matter has been tried one or more times, even if it fails, the experience gained will not allow you to reduce some of the failures in the next attempt. Then the ideas and answers in the above questions are correct. But the expression of the conclusion is that there are some problems: because the single success rate of the event itself is not improved, or 1%. Therefore, the first half of this conclusion is not desirable. If someone can try all the mistakes, the next attempt is naturally successful for the client. Therefore, the latter part of the sentence is desirable: stupidly insist on the same, always see the results of Niubi.

2. Now consider the second hypothesis. If this is a fixed transaction, there is no random change factor. It can be seen as doing a multiple-choice question with 100 options, so every time you fail, the chances of losing the next time will be reduced. If you record every failure of your own, then the worst case is that the first 99 times each time you choose the wrong one, then the last time will necessarily be correct. In fact, in this process, the correct rate of the next selection after each failure is also improved. From the first time, it is: 1/100, 1/99, 1/98... In this case, repeat it 100 times, at least The chance of success is 100%. The worst case is the success of the 100th time.

In this case, the probability of the nth still failing is:

*...

=

It can be seen that as n increases, that is, the number of attempts increases, the probability of failure will become smaller and smaller. The probability of failure until the hundredth failure is reduced to zero.

In this case, you can fully get the above conclusion: the seemingly impossible thing will continue to improve in the repeated attempts - the same as stupidity, always see the results of the bull.

3. Another situation is also the most common situation in real life.

If there is something uncontrollable in this matter, it is not completely irregular. Such as starting a business, or shooting from a distance. Different people get different information in the process of failure. For most people, every attempt, if not successful, can also know the factors that have obstacles to success. When trying next time, try to avoid the same A place falls, even if it falls for another place.

This probability cannot be measured by specific numbers, but obviously, by each of us, we can see that almost everyone has one or two areas that are good at it, and some people are experts in solving problems. It is always easy. success. Because the problems we encounter in our lives are often not completely random. A lot of things, such as shooting percentage, such as time-limited answering questions, through continuous practice, better control of strength, direction, curvature and other skills, this continuous practice, continuous trial process is undoubtedly to improve the success rate of a single attempt. Similarly, after a person has some experience in a field, changing a field will be easier to succeed. Because most of the problems will have the same parts, the ability to learn and the ability to solve problems, even in different fields.

At the same time, even the same thing, different people's performance is different. In the process of failure, some people are hit by self-confidence and choose to give up. If they have to do this thing the next time, they will have a shadow and they will not be able to overcome their obstacles. The success rate will be lower. The other part of the people, more frustrated and more brave and good at summing up the lessons of failure, analyzing the relationship between things, then the success rate of these people will undoubtedly become higher and higher.

The seemingly impossible thing will continue to improve in the repeated attempts - the same as stupidity, always see the results of the bull. This situation is very easy to draw this conclusion.

4. But the above three situations are not enough to prove that "the stupidity insists, the result will always be seen," because there is still a problem.

The precondition for the problem of repeating one thing is: an event that seems impossible. Such events can be divided into two types: small chance events and impossible events. The above three cases are all analyzed in small probability events. For the latter - impossible events, the result of repeated attempts is futile. Although they are all stupid, but some people are arrogant, and some people are stupid. Therefore, in this process, it is very important to judge whether one thing is a small chance event or an impossible event.

Einstein said: Crazy is to repeat one thing, but expect different results.

So some people succeeded after madness, and some people were really crazy. In the middle of it, you can see it.

Left bank note: For this small chance, it is the limit of life. In most cases, we start to insist on having a clear goal or a certain belief in our hearts. Those are the reasons why we insist, and these things that we are worthy of insisting must touch our hearts. Persistence is a kind of heart experience. Of course, we urgently need a result. We need a reason and need a little comfort.

If you stick to it, there will always be a result, you may not feel it, because we are all paying attention to the actual result, and ignoring the process we try our best to insist on, but in the process, we really I have gained a lot, even if it is a bad result or even no result, but you have to know that you are not getting nothing along the way.

If you admit that you lost, it was lost to time, or lost to the cruel reality, in fact, lost to yourself.

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