XX District XX Township Real Estate Feasibility Study Report
Executive summary
XX Township, XX District, belongs to one of the three major residential districts identified by the “10th Five-Year Plan” of XX City. This paper is based on the market research and analysis of the development and operation environment of 125.59 mu of a country in Shiqiao Village, XX District, XX District, and the comparison of the main similar competitive properties in the surrounding area, based on the current market conditions of XX Township in XX District and the future. It is predicted that the project's feasibility and development management plan will be put forward, and combined with the project's characteristic advantages, the project will be analyzed for investment, financial evaluation and risk analysis, in order to explore the possibility of residential development and operation of the site. According to the scheme of this paper, the total construction area of the project is 117,200 square meters, and the total investment of the project is 159,488,500 yuan. The project's financial net present value is 36.201 million yuan, and the project's financial internal rate of return is 27.1%, so the project is economically viable.
[Keywords] XX Garden Project Investment Development and Management
Table of Contents Chapter 1 Preface I. Reporting Objectives II. Reporting Compilation Basis III. Project Overview Chapter II Project Development and Operation Environment Analysis I. Domestic Economy and Real Estate Market Review in 2000 II. XX Real Estate Market Analysis III. Favorable Investment Economic Situation Analysis of the causes of the third chapter of the project surrounding the property market survey and analysis 1, the geographical environment of the investment plot 2, XX regional analysis III, the main property analysis around the project IV, XX township consumer survey analysis Chapter 4 project development and management advantages and opportunities Point analysis I. Real estate investment project development and operation opportunity formation mode II. Project development and management advantage point III. Project development and operation opportunity point Chapter 5 Project orientation I. Target market positioning II. Product positioning Chapter VI Project planning and architectural design proposal Project overall planning proposal II. Residential building design proposal III. Community supporting facilities proposal IV. Environmental art design proposal Chapter VII Project development and operation strategy and investment estimation I. Project development and operation strategy II. Project investment estimation III. Project implementation schedule IV. Project Investment and Fundraising Plan Chapter 8 Analysis of the development status of the project 1. Project sales plan II. Project sales revenue estimation 3. Project operating cost estimation 4. Project profit estimation 5. Project cash flow, financial net present value and financial internal rate of return Chapter IX Project development and operation risk Analysis I. Project Break-even Analysis II. Project Sensitivity Analysis III. Main Risks and Countermeasures of Project Development and Management Chapter 10 Conclusions and Recommendations Chapter 11 Conclusion Chapter 12 Appendix and Main References
Chapter 1 Preface I. Purpose of Reporting
1. Based on the detailed analysis of the project development and operation environment, combined with the location environment of the project, the market value of the land is evaluated reasonably.
2. Put forward preliminary opinions on the feasibility of the project and development and operation planning, and put forward corresponding suggestions for the planning and design of the project, architectural design and environmental art design.
3. Combine the company's situation and project characteristics to explore feasible ways of project development and operation.
4. Conduct investment analysis and risk analysis on the project.
5. Make recommendations for project decision making and optimization of its implementation.
Second, the basis for the preparation of the report
1. Planning plan of the XX Municipal Planning Bureau;
2. Yifang website;
3. Laws and policies related to real estate promulgated by the Ministry of Construction and XX City;
4. XX City 2000 Real Estate Yearbook;
5. Information obtained from site surveys and field surveys.
6. Information provided by Xinhongtai Intermediary Agency of XX City III. Project Overview The plot is located in Shiqiao Village, XX Township, XX District, with a total area of about 125.59 mu, belonging to the three major residential new districts identified by the “10th Five-Year Plan” of XX City. One - XX township residential group is of great significance for the development of new types of housing. According to the requirements of the XX Municipal Planning Bureau, the land has been basically leveled with water and electricity. It has been approved by the Municipal People's Government Wuzhengzizi [2001] No. 2 and can be exempted from the urban infrastructure supporting fees. It is also determined that the main use of the plot is residential land, the plot ratio is not more than 1.4, the building density is 22.5%, and the greening rate is not less than 40%. The main building form is multi-storey, and the building height limit is generally less than 24 meters. It is also allowed to build high-rise buildings, but the proportion should not exceed 20%.
According to the survey analysis and the above information, the project product is positioned as a medium-grade residential new district. The building form adopts a combination type: 60% for multiple floors and 40% for small high-rises, and the main technical indicators of the project are initially determined as follows:
1 Total land area: 8.37 hectares, combined with 125.59 mu.
2 floor area ratio: 1.4
3 total construction area: 117,200 M2
Of which: multi-storey residential: 67,200 M2
Small high-rise residential and villa: 44,800 M2
Public building area: 0.5 million M2
4 building density: 22.5%
5 greening rate: 40%
Chapter II Analysis of Project Development and Operation Environment I. In 2000, the domestic economic and real estate market returned to investment opportunities in the business environment, especially as a basic and leading real estate industry. Therefore, the grasp of the macroeconomic, social and policy environment is the primary concern of every development decision maker.
In 2000, in accordance with the requirements of economic development, China adhered to the principle of expanding domestic demand, continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, vigorously promoted economic restructuring, strengthened the agricultural base, increased the reform of state-owned enterprises and removed the difficulties, and implemented the western region. The development strategy and various measures have been adopted to expand exports. The implementation of these major measures has enabled China's national economy to maintain a relatively fast development momentum and show positive changes. Investment, consumption and export growth accelerated, social demand further recovered, structural adjustment progressed steadily, infrastructure construction was strengthened, economic system reforms made new progress, corporate profits and fiscal revenues increased substantially, and economic operation quality further improved.
At the same time, the construction of real estate in the country started, and the increase in the area of completion was not reduced. According to the information provided by the Bureau of Fixed Assets Investment Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the value of the National Housing Climate Index reached 104.06 points in 2000, an increase of 2.6 points over the previous year, maintaining a rapid rise. Development trend, real estate development has the following characteristics: real estate development investment and in-situ funds continue to grow rapidly; commercial housing sales area and sales revenue growth is strong; average sales price of commercial housing is rising steadily; total construction of commercial housing is expanding; new construction projects are increasing rapidly The efforts of governments at all levels to digest vacant areas have begun to bear fruit, and the vacant area of commercial housing has fallen sharply. The real estate market has shown a booming situation in both production and sales. With the improvement of the national economic situation and the introduction of relevant policies, the funds invested in real estate have increased significantly, the investment structure has further improved, and the real estate industry has shown strong growth momentum. The real estate market also presents the following main features:
National Real Estate Development and Sales
Actually in 2000 compared with the same period of last year +%
Residential investment 3318.7 25.8
Commercial housing new construction area 28295 30.6
Commercial housing completion area 23027.9 16.4
Commercial housing sales area 16984.1 26.9
Commercial housing sales 3571.0 30.1
Of which: sales to individuals 2840.3 51.9
The proportion of total sales is 79.5 --
1. The amount of development investment continues to grow and the investment structure tends to be reasonable. In 2000, the national real estate development completed an investment of 490.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.5%, accounting for 20.2% of fixed assets investment. Among them: the investment in commercial housing development was 331.874 billion yuan, up 25.8% from the previous year.
2. The theme of consumption has changed and the total sales volume has increased year by year. In 2000, individuals purchased 130 million square meters of commercial housing, accounting for 87.51% of the sales area of commercial housing, an increase of 7.9 percentage points over the previous year.
3. Sales prices have risen steadily and consumer credit has continued to expand. In 2000, the average selling price per square meter of commercial housing was 2105 yuan, up 5.98% over the previous year. The average selling price of commercial housing was 1951.6 yuan, up 8.14%. The average selling price of office writing rooms was 4437 yuan, down 7.95%. Commercial business buildings. The average selling price was 3221.18 yuan, up 3.47%. Personal housing loans have doubled every year. The balance of personal housing loans of four commercial banks has grown by 17.4 times in three years. Among them, the balance of personal housing loans of China Construction Bank reached 139 billion yuan at the end of 2000, accounting for 10.6% of the bank's total loan balance. The newly added personal housing loans accounted for 40% of the bank's total loans in the year.
4. The secondary market is becoming increasingly active and the rental market is becoming a climate. The situation of new commercial housing incremental market, second-hand housing trading market and housing rental market has formed a three-point world, which has brought prosperity to the real estate market.
5. Demand conditions have changed and market supply and demand have varied. From the situation reflected by various cities, with the rise of individual housing, the area is small, the design is reasonable, and the fully functional mid-sleeve housing is generally sold well, the environment, greening, supporting, and property management are getting better and better for buyers. Emphasis is placed on the acceleration of innovation in residential products, brand awareness, and brand real estate.
The above information shows that the national giant economic situation is good, the real estate market is also developing steadily, and with the introduction of relevant policies and regulations, it is appropriate to carry out residential investment, which is consistent with the national situation.
Second, XX city real estate market analysis
1. Real estate market in 2000
In 2000, the real estate market situation in XX City was steadily rising and gradually rising. First, the city's total investment in real estate development reached 10.129 billion yuan, up 11.07% compared with 1999; the city's total construction area was 13.43 million square meters, up 3.68% over 1999; the total completed area was 4.5411 million square meters, up 2% from 1999. The completed area of residential buildings reached 3,773,100 square meters, accounting for 83.09% of the total completed area of the city, an increase of 8.6% over 1999; the total sales area of commercial housing in the city was 3,037,600 square meters, of which 2.44 million square meters were occupied, accounting for the total area. 80.33%, sales reached 6.02 billion yuan; vacant commercial housing fell from 1.5 million square meters in 1999 to 1.15 million square meters. Second, in the real estate leasing market, the total number of housing leasing in the city is 19,481, which is 11% higher than that in 1999. The total leased area is 80,150 square meters, which is 17% higher than that of 1999. The total annual rent is 336 million yuan. In 1999, it grew by 52%. Third, in terms of real estate mortgages, the total number of real estate mortgages in the city was 21,647, an increase of 122.8% over 1999, indicating that individual home purchase loans are growing rapidly. The above situation indicates that the economic indicators of real estate giants in XX City began to pick up in 2000, and the real estate market began to enter a growth period, which is changing towards a new booming period.
The personal purchase rate has further increased. The personal purchase rate of commercial housing is an important indicator reflecting the purchasing power of the regional real estate market. In the fourth quarter of 2000, the sales of commercial housing was 800 million yuan, of which the personal purchase was 691 million yuan and the personal purchase rate was 86.43%. It can be seen from the figure that in 2000, the personal purchase rate of commercial housing in XX City continued to rise, reaching the level of 86.43% in the fourth quarter, and the personal purchase rate continued to rise. It also showed that the real estate market is developing well and real estate consumption has been Start-up and continuous growth provide the conditions for the continued rapid development of the real estate market.
Real estate investment has further increased and the investment structure has become more reasonable. In the fourth quarter of 2000, the total real estate investment was 3.579 billion yuan, which was further developed on the basis of the previous quarter. As seen from the left figure, real estate investment in XX city grew very rapidly in each quarter of 2000, showing a large increase, indicating the new growth of the real estate industry. The cycle has arrived, and it can be seen that real estate demand has a strong pulling effect on investment.
Price index in the first quarter of 1941.8 1000
Second quarter 1963 1010.9
Third quarter 2003.93 1031.9
Fourth quarter 2021.66 1041.03
As of November 2000, the city completed residential investment of 2.087 billion yuan, accounting for 58.33% of total real estate investment. In 2000, the total investment of housing in XX city was 7.582 billion yuan, accounting for 85.58% of total real estate investment. The price index of residential property is as follows:
The quarterly XX city residential weighted average price level and price index changes as shown below:
As can be seen from the chart below, residential prices continued to rise in the fourth quarter, but the increase was less than the previous quarter, due to the relatively low residential price base in the second quarter, resulting in a larger increase in residential prices in the third quarter, and residential prices in the third quarter in the fourth quarter. It is difficult to continue to maintain a large increase on the basis of a relatively high base, but the general trend is that residential prices will continue to climb.
2. Market characteristics analysis
2.1 Giant market characteristics: <Yifang.cn>
1. The historic breakthrough in the reform of the housing distribution system has provided the impetus for the development of the real estate market. In 2000, XX City officially entered the commodity era of housing. Since December 31, 1998, the welfare distribution housing system, which has been in existence for more than 50 years, has withdrawn from the historical stage. Instead, the currency distribution system has been replaced, and the commodity attributes of the houses have gradually been restored. After the excessive conversion in 1999, since 2000, the physical housing has been completely stopped, and the concept of welfare housing for residents to wait for, rely on and want has begun to change to commercialization. Before June 30, 2000, anyone who purchases a one-time payment for public housing can enjoy a 20% discount. At the end of 2000, the 10% discount for the one-time payment for the purchase of the existing public housing will also be completed. Zero discount." The housing, the most capital-consuming commodity in people's daily consumption, was fully integrated into the market economy track in 2000.
2. The vacant commercial housing has enhanced digestion. In 2000, the sales of the XX real estate market became warmer, and the market capacity expanded. In addition to absorbing the listed commercial housing, it also digested some of the vacant commercial housing in previous years. In 1999, the vacant commercial housing in XX City was 1.5 million square meters. In 2000, it was added 90,000 square meters. By the end of 2000, there were 1.15 million square meters left. Therefore, in 2000, a total of 440,000 square meters were digested.
3. The construction of affordable housing has achieved good results. In 2000, XX City continued to promote and improve the construction of affordable housing. The construction area of affordable housing for the whole year was 1.95 million square meters, and the completed area was 650,000 square meters, accounting for 17.23% of the total completed area of the city. The annual sales were 1,115,400 square meters, of which pre-sales were 389,600 square meters, and the sales rate exceeded 100%, solved the housing problem of more than 10,000 households, and successively developed a number of large-scale, environmentally-friendly and key economically affordable housing plots such as Baibuting Garden and Huajincheng Garden.
4. The linkage effect of the second and third-tier real estate market has initially appeared. In 2000, the structure of the real estate market in XX City tended to be reasonable, the stock of real estate transactions was significantly enlarged, and the second-hand housing market was more active. According to the experience of developed real estate areas, the active use of the second-hand housing market will directly stimulate the development of the residential primary market. The increase in the sales of stocks does not mean the shrinking of the incremental housing market, but rather the growth of the incremental housing market. The transaction of stocks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has greatly exceeded the transaction of incremental housing, and the transaction of existing housing in XX City is indeed smaller than the transaction of incremental housing. Therefore, the operation space of using the second-hand housing transaction to drive the residential primary market is very large. In 2000, XX City's incremental housing market traded 30010, with a transaction area of 2.44 million square meters, while the stock market transaction reached 27,130 and the construction area was 4,786,200 square meters. The rise of stock trading and the listing of public housing have greatly promoted the gradual consumption demand of the XX real estate market.
Housing primary market housing secondary market residential total number 30010 from 27130 from 57140 construction area 244 square meters 4,786,200 square meters 7,262,200 square meters
5. The financial system has become a solid backing for the real estate industry. Bank: Personal housing loans have been used as the mainstay of real estate loan business, and some banks have raised the upper limit of personal loans to the “80% 30 years” period. In 2000, the city's banks issued personal housing loans totaling 2.917 billion yuan, more than double the total investment of 1.179 billion yuan in the construction sector. In terms of provident fund: the area of purchase of public provident loans accounts for a quarter of the total sales area of the year. In 2000, the newly added housing accumulation fund was 538 million yuan, an increase of 33.94% over 1999. A total of 9,019 individual housing loans were approved, totaling 541 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 97.8%; supporting the purchase of individual housing construction area of 917,600 square meters, the total value of housing reached 1.256 billion yuan.
6. Housing mortgages play a pivotal role in the real estate market. In 2000, the total number of real estate mortgages was 21,647, which was 122.8% higher than that of 1999. This indicates that the number of mortgages has increased, the number of mortgage loans for individual purchases has increased, and the small amount of provident funds has increased. At the same time, the bank has accelerated the speed of lending and the conditions for lending, which plays a very important role in the market finance. At the end of 1999, the XX City Housing Guarantee Company was established. In 2000, 300 guarantee businesses were handled and 40 million yuan of loans were issued, of which 50% were loans for the purchase of new commercial housing and 50% were for housing mortgage financing.
7. Real estate agency services have played a positive role in the launch of real estate second and third grade markets. In 2000, the various housing consumption services carried out by XX City around the accelerated start of the secondary market of housing were very active. The intermediary service field of housing consumption has been greatly expanded, which has played an important role in promoting the prosperity of the real estate market. By the year 2000, a total of 218 intermediaries had spread throughout the city, forming a tangible network of intermediary services. At the same time, at the end of August 2000, the “100 Real Estate Intermediary Organizations Committed to Providing a Joint Declaring Activity for Relief Intermediary” was held. At the end of the year, the rectification work to crack down on illegal intermediaries was carried out, which not only standardized the service behavior of the intermediary market in XX City, but also drove the whole The industry's norms and self-discipline play an important role in the active XX city's second and third-tier markets.
8. The Housing Fair provides an important stage for the active real estate market. In 2000, various districts of XX City jointly organized the “House Fair” to further expand the active housing market. In June and November, two large-scale housing fairs were held in the city. At the same time, the districts did not lose the opportunity to hold district-level housing fairs, which not only promoted the development of the incremental housing market, but also actively promoted the trading of stock houses. According to statistics, in 2000 the city's housing fair, a total of 5662 commercial housing sales, the transaction area of 863,100 square meters, turnover of 1.3 billion yuan; second-hand housing transactions of 1,681, the transaction area of 150,000 square meters, the transaction amount of 130 million yuan; From 1876; 245 mortgages and mortgages.
2. 2 micro market characteristics
1. From the geographical point of view, due to the improvement of the infrastructure facilities of the government in previous years, the environment and road conditions have been greatly improved, so that the investment and sales volume of the surrounding areas are higher than the central area. From the sales situation, the most prosperous is Xu Dong and Hongshan Guanggu. In 2000, there were no more than 10 properties on the Xudong Road, which were very popular and formed a bunch of effects. As a new district of Wuchang, Xudong has become the most annoying area in Wuchang under the influence of the bridge economy, and has become the first choice for Wuchang residents to purchase houses. The same optical valley is also the highlight of the year 2000. It not only brings together a large number of real estates, but also has a first-class humanistic environment. In 2000, the successful listing of Huagong Technology and the frequent economic success of the Optics Valley region, the strong driving force of its purchasing power is the reason for the rapid development of Guanggu Real Estate. With the implementation of the strategic decision of the city to develop Optics Valley, the housing prices in this area are constantly rising.
2. From the perspective of real estate structure and apartment type, the brick-concrete structure has gradually withdrawn from the historical stage. At present, the structure on the market is mainly the structure structure. With regard to the design of the apartment, with the improvement of the quality of life of the citizens, the three-bedroom, two-bedroom and two-bedroom units gradually replaced the market position of the two-bedroom and two-bedroom units and were favored by the market. The area is mostly between 90-120 square meters.
3. From the height of the real estate, the sales of small high-rise real estate began to change, changing the dominant pattern of multi-storey real estate. This is mainly due to the small high-rise real estate with elevators, avoiding the trouble of multiple floors going upstairs. At the same time, compared with the high-rise buildings, it has good ventilation and lighting, good structure and effective use area, so it has become a new sales in 2000. Variety.
4. From the sales situation of the floor, the top-level sales situation is better than that of previous years, mainly due to the breakthrough in technology. Many top-floor sales of real estates have adopted the promotion means of sending attic, so the top floor is more reasonable in space utilization. The price is also slightly lower, which has certain appeal to customers and sales are relatively smooth. For example: the construction of the Millennium Garden, which began sales in November 2000, and the top floor has been fully sold.
5. From the price point of view, the commodity housing of about 2,000 yuan / square meter is the most acceptable to the market, and it is also the most reasonable price for the public to buy commercial housing, while the affordable housing is 100% accepted by the market, and now the average affordable housing in the city The price is between 1300-1400 yuan / square meter.
6. From the perspective of real estate design, the design styles of the open sales in 2000 are different to meet the increasingly demanding individualized demands of the market. In 2000, the whole market has European style, classical style, Chinese and Western styles and other characteristics, which can be described as a hundred flowers. It not only reflects the progress of the market awareness of the development of the city, but also shows the improvement of the level of the architectural design unit.
7. From the perspective of real estate environment, due to the improvement of consumers' demand level and the pursuit of beautiful environment, in 2000, the developers of our city paid great attention to the beautification and improvement of the real estate hard environment. Developers have made greater investments in increasing the green area of the community and creating environmental art in the community. For example, Changqing Garden No. 4 Community, the combination of greening points, lines and planes in the community, the per capita public green space is 3.19 square meters, and the green land rate is 40%. Through the physical gardening landscape, the color and space are used to form a multi-level cultural taste. Driven the sales of the No. 4 community, in 2000, it has sold 180,000 square meters, accounting for more than 50% of the total sales.
8. Judging from the supporting facilities of real estate, in 2000, many developers' real estates were equipped with remote meter reading, triple play, infrared monitoring, convenience store, clubhouse, gym and other facilities, focusing on the needs of the owners and providing a full range of services. Supporting services. For example, Baibuting Garden, not only remote meter reading, triple play, infrared monitoring, convenience store, clubhouse, gymnasium and other basic supporting ones are perfect, the introduction of XX school Yucai National Small Branch, a school, grafted education into the community, Utilize the strong faculty of Yucai to help the owners solve their children’s schooling and education problems.
9. Judging from the selling point of real estate, the real estate sales in 2000 is highlighted by the concept of intelligentization. In fact, the time for this concept to enter XX is not short, but it has not been widely promoted. In 2000, with the “Wisdom Card” played by Lidao Garden, Changqing Garden No. 4 Community and Xuefu Jiayuan, this concept was gradually rooted in the market. The Smart Building Expo, held on November 2-4, 2000, also created a trend toward the concept of “smart”. Wisdom will become an indispensable feature of every property.
10. From the perspective of real estate sales promotion, although the market is in the buyer's market, but consumers have not yet reached the point of rationalization, the effective guidance of the seller will play an important role in the buyer's purchase decision. For example, the Lanwan Junyuan project used a variety of propaganda methods to create a whirlwind of blue bays in Jiangcheng, which made a large number of consumers who had the intention to purchase houses eventually become the owners of Blue Bay.
11. From the perspective of the brand, the real estates of Chengkai, Tongjian, Fuqiang, Kangju, Baibu Pavilion and other enterprises have become the first choice for the public to purchase houses with the characteristics of “purchase peace of mind, quality assured, and comfortable living”.
The overall situation of the XX real estate market in 2000 was very good, but there were some shortcomings. For example, in some areas, there are some problems such as unreasonable price/performance ratio of residential goods. Some developers still have more short-term behaviors that pursue high profits in the process of developing real estate. For example, if the materials are not refined, the building quality is unqualified, and the property is collected. Management fees, etc.
3.3 Classification of property characteristics According to the "Wufang Index" statistics, in the four quarters of 2000, the real estate prices of XX City continued to grow, and the residential and office price indices were as follows:
It can be seen from the above information that in 2000, residential growth was relatively fast, and the growth of office buildings was relatively flat. In general, the development and sales of commercial housing in the city have achieved great development. The sales price and sales volume have grown considerably in one year. The office market has gradually emerged from the shadow of the downturn. The pace is slow but the situation is gratifying. . From the simple regression analysis shown above, the trend of residential, office and composite property indices will continue to rise in the first quarter of 2001.
Residential and residential properties have always been the backbone of the real estate market. Regardless of investment development or sales, it has always been a hot spot in the market. The sales area of residential housing in the city has accounted for 94.5% of the total sales area, and the sales of individual residential houses accounted for the total sales. 94.7% of the area. In the four quarters of 2000, the residential prices in our city were 1945.49 yuan / square meter, 1963 yuan / square meter, 2003.93 yuan / square meter, 2021.66 yuan / square meter, showing a gradual upward trend, the annual average price was 1983.52 yuan / Square meters.
1. The sales of ordinary commercial housing have risen steadily, and the prices of a few projects have been slightly reduced, but they are still hot spots in the market;
2. Affordable housing, good trend, production and sales are booming, is the market's sought-after varieties, the price is 3.1% higher than 1999; the average price of affordable housing in the city is between 1,300 yuan and 1,400 yuan / square meter;
3. The villas and high-end apartment market have a warming trend. With the help of the urban garden and the Lidao Garden, there are signs of rebound. The price has increased by 5.6% compared with 1999, which has become a new market highlight.
Due to the improvement of the economic environment in the office building in 2000, the price of office buildings in the city has increased compared with previous years. In the fourth quarter of 2000, the office prices were 4003.95, 4048, 4058.33, 4070.77 yuan / square meter, the average selling price was 4032 yuan / square meter, and the rental price was 25 yuan / square meter, up 6% from 1999. The characteristics of the office market in 2000 were that the geographical distribution of office buildings affected its price. In 2000, due to the dense area of office buildings turned to the “financial street” of the construction road, the highest average price of office buildings in 2000 was “financial street”. The location of the office building - the price distribution map is as follows:
1. From the Youth Road on the construction boulevard to the Hong Kong Road, it is the most densely populated office building in XX City. It has brought together many high-end office buildings such as Zhaoyin Building, Jianyin Building, New World International Trade Building, Xinhe Building and Ruitong Plaza. The lot is really a prime location in the city, with an average price of 7580 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rent is 60 yuan / square meter, the average occupancy rate is about 60%.
2. The section from Jiefang Avenue to Wusheng Road is also a densely populated section of the city's medium and high-end office buildings, XX Plaza, Taihe Plaza, Zhongyuan Building, Chemical Building and Liangyou Building. The average selling price is 5036 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rent is 33.8 yuan / square meter, the occupancy rate is 55%, retired to the second place.
3. Victory Street to Jianghan Road, along the Yangtze River Avenue. It has gathered office buildings such as Wuxin Building, Jintao Building, Changhang Building and Jinguan Building. The average selling price is 4160 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rental price is 32..8 yuan / square meter, and the occupancy rate is about 50%.
4. Zhongnan Road to Wusong Road. China Merchants Plaza, Development Building, Zhongnan Building, Jiangtian Building, Huitong Building and Asia Trade Plaza, the average selling price of the lot is 4,091 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rental price is 35.9 yuan / square meter, occupancy rate is 70%.
5. Baofeng Road, Hanyang area. The average selling price is 3,810 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rental price is 30 yuan / square meter, the average occupancy rate is about 80%.
After joining the WTO, with the entry of foreign-funded enterprises, some of the vacant office buildings will be digested. Therefore, the office market in the city will be improved. However, the overall strength of the office market will depend on the national economy of the city.
Business service room
In 2000, it has curbed the downward trend and began to rebound and strengthen. Mainly benefited from a series of renovation projects carried out by the municipal government in 2000, such as the transformation of Jianghan Road into a hiking area, the establishment of Hongshan Square, Luxiang Square and Shouyi Square, which brought the department store sales service industry. Huge business opportunities also provide opportunities for the development of commercial service buildings. In 2000, the city opened two new large-scale shopping malls – Zhuangsheng Sogo and Luxiang Shopping Plaza, and the century-old store center department store re-marketing, re-changing the image, and the three stores of Wushang were integrated into a commercial city, which stimulated the business. The demand for commercial service housing has caused the price of commercial service housing to rise. In 2000, Hanzheng Street also proposed a second venture, and all 500 shops in Dajiajie Mall were sold. However, due to the lack of support for commercial housing in some areas, there is no scale, the vacancy phenomenon is still serious, the economic benefits are not good, and the price is very low, such as shops on Xudong Road.
It can be seen from the above information that the real estate market environment in XX City is good, and various properties are developing in a favorable direction, especially residential investment, which will be further developed.
3. Prospects for the real estate market in XX and 2001 in the future
In 2000, real estate prices in Hubei Province emerged from a downturn, showing a trend of rising quarter by quarter. Therefore, 2001 is also an important year for the development of real estate in XX City.
1. In 2001, one of the ten major projects of XX City was that the investment in real estate development reached 10 billion, and the completed area of residential buildings reached 5 million square meters, which indicates that a new real estate economic boom will be launched. In 2001, the development was mainly concentrated in the XX, Changqing, Nanhu, Sixin and Changfeng areas. The distribution of people flow will be dispersed to the periphery of the city. The population and land use of Wuchang, Hankou and Hanyang will be relatively balanced.
2. In 2001, the overall goal of XX city housing reform was to fully implement the monetization of housing allocation, improve the socialization and commercialization of housing, establish a new urban housing system that adapts to the socialist market economy, implement the allocation of housing subsidies, and release purchasing power.
3. Continue to strengthen the construction of affordable housing, and in 2001 XX City will establish an auditing mechanism for affordable housing. The total amount of affordable housing is based on the coordinated development of commercial housing to achieve three controls: one is the audit control of sales targets; the second is to improve the price audit control, and the third is the control of the area standard.
4. In 2001, the tangible market of real estate in XX city and district level will soon be fully completed and interconnected. It will provide a standardized trading venue, provide a large amount of market information, and provide fast trading services, which will play an important role in promoting market circulation.
5. Establish an efficient real estate administrative management system, actively promote the integration of real estate transactions and tenure management, and implement the “Guiding Opinions on Simplifying the Real Estate Transaction and Housing Ownership Registration Procedures” to effectively solve the current number of approval links in real estate transactions and ownership registration. The requirements are complicated and the handling time is too long. Implement a window receipt, a window to issue certificates, simplify the program, reduce fees, and play a positive role in promoting real estate transactions.
6. Standardize property management, clarify pricing principles, pricing methods and price components of property management fees, regulate property management fees and strengthen supervision. At the same time, it revised and improved the original policies and regulations, effectively regulated the property management development and market behavior, and strived to form a systematic and complete property management policy and regulation system.
7. Actively promote the national economy and social informationization process of XX City, start the construction of real estate information and network, support a number of high-tech enterprises like “Yifang.com”, establish, improve and standardize the real estate information consulting service system. Develop e-commerce in the real estate industry.
According to experts' prediction, the general trend of real estate prices in 2001 was rising, but the increase was not strong, showing a "soft rise" status.
The main factors supporting the soft rise are as follows: First, a number of real estate support policies will drive up housing prices. In 2001, these policies that can affect the housing market include: housing allocation system reform, major adjustment of housing supply system, and further development of second-hand housing market. Open, housing finance cultivation and accelerated development, strengthening residential industrialization, and improving the overall quality of housing construction, these policies are very likely to translate the huge potential demand for housing into effective demand.
In addition, the bank's multiple interest rate cuts will also help residents increase their investment in housing. The possibility of housing consumption and the market will expand. In addition, the implementation of relevant financial policy measures will also promote real estate, such as the increase in the country in 2000. The concentration of housing provident fund, focusing on the development of residential portfolio loan business, extending the mortgage period, and improving housing loan guarantees all play a positive role in promoting market digestion and increasing market prices.
Analysis of the Causes of the Investment Economy Situation Analysis of the Impact of the National Giant Economy As of November, China's economy maintained a rapid growth of 8.2%. It is the best year since the Asian financial crisis. The main performances are as follows: In November, the industrial added value of the country was 217.1 billion yuan, up 10.6% from the same month of the previous year, and continued to maintain a relatively fast growth momentum. From January to November, the accumulated industrial added value was 1,212.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% over the same period of the previous year. The growth rate of production of state-owned and joint-stock enterprises exceeds the production growth of collective, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment enterprises, indicating that China's economy has embarked on a healthy development track. The sales rate of industrial products has steadily increased. The sales rate of industrial products in November was 97.42%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points over the same month of the previous year, which was basically the same as the production and sales rate last month. From January to November, the sales rate of industrial products was 97.27%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In the first 11 months, the cumulative export delivery value increased by 26.1% over the same period of the previous year, and it still maintained a rapid growth momentum. In November, the national consumer price level rose by 0.7% from the previous month and by 1.3% from the same month of last year. The cumulative average from January to November, the national consumer price level rose by 0.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the prices of residential goods and services increased by 1.0% and 0.3% respectively from the previous month.
The economic development momentum of XX City is good. Since the beginning of this year, the GDP of XX City has maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. The growth of fiscal revenue due to GDP growth is about 1.3 billion yuan. In October, the state-owned industrial enterprises and non-state-owned industrial enterprises with annual sales income of more than 5 million yuan completed industrial added value of 2.485 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, up 16.35% over the same period of the previous year. Various economic types of industries are competing to grow, and foreign businessmen, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have the highest economic growth. The state-owned economy, the collective economy, the joint-stock economy, foreign businesses, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan economies respectively completed industrial added value of 1.262 billion yuan, 148 million yuan, 566 million yuan and 459 million yuan, up 10.6%, 11.0%, 16.9% over the same period of the previous year. 30.3%; From January to October, the city completed fixed assets investment of 19.343 billion yuan, up 6.7% over the same period of the previous year.其中基本建設完成投資71.28億元，成長3.6%；更新改造完成46.91億元，成長2.9%；房地產完成70.26億元，成長4.9%。消費品市場繁榮興旺，外貿出口大幅成長。對外貿易10月份實現外貿出口3451萬美元，比上年同期成長31.3%，保持較高的成長幅度。截止11月底，全市國有工業企業總產值同比成長14.4%，產品銷售收入成長22.8，實現利稅成長70.9%，實現利潤總額由去年同期的負2億元到今年盈利6.7億元，虧損企業的虧損額由去年同期的7.9億減少到5.4億元。
全國整體房地產市場發育發展情況良好11月，空置面積分類指數值為98.18點，明顯低於去年同期104.82點的水準。 今年前11個月，商品房空置面積的成長速度為11.8%，當月凈增空置面積169萬平方米。 在銷售持續升溫的推動下，商品房銷售價格穩中趨升。截至11月，全國商品房平均銷售價格為每平方米2091元，同比成長2.2%，是下半年以來的最高增幅。其中，商品住宅銷售價格為每平方米1962元，比前10個月增加47元。 今年，房地產開發投資明顯快於同期基本建設和更新改造投資成長速度。今年前11個月，全國完成房地產開發投資3744.3億元，同比成長24.11%，增幅比去年同期提高3.7個百分點，房地產開發投資佔固定資產投資比重達20.6%。 受房地產開發與銷售快速成長的影響，土地開發面積明顯高於去年同期。前11個月，全國累計土地開發面積5337萬平方米，同比成長36.9%。
積金歸集、商業銀行住房貸款的有力支持據統計，今年全市公積金歸集額為5億元，超過政府4.5億的目標，公積金使用4.86億元，截止今年，公積金歷年累計歸集額為22億元。另外，商業銀行住房貸款的程式簡化、貸款額度的加大及貸款年限的延長都為啓動房地產市場個人消費創造了條件。
在充分的資料基礎上，綜合上述房地產投資環境分析和經濟形式成因分析，可得出結論：國家巨觀經濟形式是可喜的，與房地產有關的政策和法規有利於房地產市場的進一步發展和活躍，因此可以說XX花園項目在投資機會選擇決策、地段選擇決策這兩個方面是有充分科學根據的。
第三章項目周邊物業市場調查分析項目調查是可行性研究工作的基礎，是在地域選擇後進行的多項生活指標的調查。本次調查分析主要是針對擬投資地塊的地理環境，XX地區區域房地產市場，地區既有的生活消費條件，XX地區住宅消費者等幾個方面的調查，為項目的可行性分析和研究提供充實的研討依據。
該項目位於XX區XX鄉，現在先對XX區房地產市場作簡要的概述。下圖表是XX區2000年的房地產價格和指數：
XX區價格XX區指數一季度2218.78 1000
二季度2227.38 1003.876
三季度2223.24 1002.86
四季度2226.24 1003.2
2000年第四季度XX區的價格指數走勢由上季度的下跌轉變為小幅上揚，但指數仍沒有達到二季度高度，因為XX區的房地產價格水準在XX市是屬於較高的，而今年房地產開發大多集中在江南地區，使得該區的住宅價格徘徊不前，XX區由於自然條件的限製使得住宅開發投資大部分都分布在中北部地區，建設大道南北，台北路、香港路一帶，是房地產開發投資較集中的地帶，主要原因是該地區的建築密度較小，交通便利，距離中央商業區較近，這一代擁有台北花園、台南花園、德富花園、澎湖高級公寓、台北花苑，碧波公寓、國信城園林小區等眾多的住宅小區。位於高雄路的國信城園林小區，1998年5月開盤，目前已屬尾房，但第四季度以2350元/平方米的現房價格出售了4500平方米，銷售業績較好。
XX、竹葉山一帶也是該區房地產投資的熱點地區之一，這一地帶是相對較偏的地段，根據“城市空心化”的理論，離市中心區有一定的距離，自然環境較好，並且有開發大片住宅小區的條件，是未來最適合居住的地區之一。這一帶已經有佳海華苑別墅、竹葉山花園、XX生態花園等住宅小區。這一地區在未來升值的可能性較大。位於該地區的東方恆星園，本季度期房銷售價格為1886元/平方米，低於XX區的均價，本季度銷售了1.65萬方。
一、 投資地塊的地理環境土地是不可再生資源，一個項目的土地價值是有多種因素綜合作用的結果。土地所處的地理位置，周邊的自然環境，人文環境，市政配套及臨近樓盤的品質等，決定了此地塊大部分的市場家者，因此，我們首先從地塊環境入手調查分析。
1.土地性質及地理位置綜述地塊面積：凈用地面積8.37公頃，近似平行四邊形，周邊主要有水塘，菜地和村鎮建設用地構成，較平整。
該地塊位於XX區XX鄉石橋村，遠為農田，整個地塊較平整，無丘陵，小山包，且地塊的延伸四周也大致是一望平原，地塊周圍有叫多的村莊，主要有石橋村，塔子湖村，新春村；還有成片的採地和零星的湖面分布在地塊周圍。
2.地塊自然景觀及環境質量
2.1自然環境該地塊整體來看屬於平原地區，空氣較好，無大型污染，植被水系豐富。
以下為地塊四個方向的環境情況：
1.南向遠望是一條長條沿路而建的現代化建築，能隱約感受到大都市生活，京廣鐵路從旁邊橫貫而過，由遠及近是大片開闊地帶，無障礙物，臨近的XX大道平行延展，該方向上因有一高壓輸電線路沿XX大道方向鋪設，使得該方向上無論近看或遠望的視線都被幹擾，另外區域環境因建設公路略有空氣和噪音污染。
2.北向北面遙望張公堤，成片的草地，帶狀的防護林區沿堤分布，大片的湖泊，蓮池密布，自然村落散布其間，湖水清澈，空氣清新，寧靜而美麗，但近處有零星的小村落削弱了景色。
3.東向遠方較開闊，中部為建設中的東方恆星園，近處的竹葉山路邊為商鋪，工棚映入眼簾，黃孝河平行流過，隱約有河水淤積下來的異味。
4.西向西對姑嫂樹路，進處無高層建築，視野開闊，遠眺現代都市居民區，隱約可見正在施工的新華家園，自然村落和耕田水塘由遠及近步入視野，也是因大道的施工沿路有灰塵。
2.2項目周邊情況我們選擇以在地塊為中心，南至五幹道，北至張公堤附近，東西以姑嫂樹路和岱黃公路兩側為界，集中調查。
1.地形地貌狀況
2.物業形態劃分圖
3.局部放大圖附圖說明
1.岱黃公路一帶區域調查自然環境：該帶為平原地段，靠近黃孝河，兩旁不遠處有若幹小湖，附近的村落有石橋村，塔字湖村，新春村，都屬於XX鄉。XX鄉鄉政府靠近竹葉山路，距石橋村不到500米。附近設有成片的自然林或人工林，惟有路兩旁不多的樹林，大車過後，塵土飛揚，該地段綠化較差，但也沒有什麽大型的污染源。
社會環境：道路路面狀況較差，經常有載貨的大卡車經過，到市內的交通不便利，沿線隻有716一路公交。地段入口處有大東門客運站，有許多通向周圍縣市的長途客車。水電氣的基礎建設均以到位，電話線已鋪設，但沒有網路線和有線電視線。路邊附近有2-3個門診部，有中國信合，農行等金融機構的分點。石橋村對面有華中高級中學，但距石橋村較遠。沒有大型的娛樂場所，隻有幾家小型的撞球廳。
人文環境：沿路兩旁的居民來自不同的地方，主要是石橋村，塔字湖村等附近的村落。另外還有武昌，漢口，漢陽的居民到此打工。同時有黃陂等附近區縣的居民。他們大多是出外打工來到這裏，租用當地居民的住房，沿路地帶和石橋村大概有2-3千人。居民的房屋大體為2-3層，比較簡陋。
經濟環境：有一大型鋼材市場，路兩旁一直到石橋村居民的收入水準不等，屬石橋村的居民每年固定有1000-1500元的收入，來源於村辦企業，承包隊，出租房。另外村民可選擇在路兩旁租商鋪，發展第三產業，或在一些私人辦的公司打工，如XX新基業混凝土有限公司等，他們的收入較高，每月有1000元左右的收入，另外有些較大的公司都有集體宿舍，員工來在各處，有的住在二七路。
此處在地塊東北方向的村落屬於石橋村六隊，該隊共有60戶，約250人，村民主要以種田，打工，出租房為生。對村大隊而言，收入主要以“賣地”為主，收入該居民發放補助，基本上每戶居民為4000-5000元/年。該村交通不發達，國小，中學都比較遠。居民主要以石橋村人為主，有一些來自黃陂等地區的打工者。工廠很少，隻有幾個村民自辦的個體小企業。僱員多為本村居民，村民自建房多為二層樓房，建築面積約400平方米左右，很多房子由外來者租住，該村的水電，通訊等都不完善，綠化狀況較差，周圍有很多廢墟空地，基礎設施和公共設施都不完善。
2.塔字湖村至張公堤路段調查自然環境：沿線區域自然風景較好，多湖泊村莊釣魚台，無污染，空氣清新，景色怡人。沿張公堤路段以綠地，防護林區和湖面次第構成，地勢平坦；塔子湖路段屬平原地區，沿路自西向東依次分布新春村，塔字湖村。周邊以菜地，耕地為主，零星分布水面，石橋村路段基本同上。
社會環境：該區域位於XX區邊緣。縱有張公堤，橫有竹葉山路，內為塔子湖路段，交通便利，有726，69路公車。給排水設施齊備，供電設施相對不足，但具備發展條件，有待進一步建設，通訊便捷，暖氣設施有待進一步開發建設，有液化汽供應站。
經濟環境：該區域人口經濟實力不強，居民收入水準普遍不高，工礦企業大都以民營，私人企業為主，現達到大都處於半停產狀態，但私營企業仍具相當活力。商業，金融業，服務業仍處於落後的萌芽狀態，有銀行，合作社零星分布其間。當地居民收入差距較大，新春村，塔字湖村平均月收入在1500元左右，主要以房屋出租，村辦工廠承包，打工，養殖為主。
3.姑嫂樹路段調查沿漢興路至張公堤段,交通便利,有560,711,805,71,527,35,41路公交線路經過,物業基本為三層商住樓,底層為商鋪,樓上為住房。商業發達,相關的銀行,醫院診所,國小,中學設施齊全,有漢興學校,XX市第七十一中學設在該區域,但環衛,綠化,無了設施仍停留在相當低的水準。居民以本村居民為主,外地人佔小部分,村居民收入來源以出租房屋,商鋪,打工為主。區域內有祥龍實業,華美生活鍋爐製造廠,紅岩汽車XX銷售公司等為民營及私營企業.沿路可視園丁苑、富康花園等已入住的居民小區。
沿張公堤段以居民區為主,零星間隔有林區和小塊菜地,無商業門面,有兩個工廠及XX新世界畜禽水產市場。沿線有35路車通行,基礎設施,公共設施相對滯後。姑嫂樹路段以民營,私營工廠為主,大都處於半停產狀態,另外該區域內設有XX市勞教所,戒毒所。居民收入主要以經營釣魚台,打工,出租房屋為來源.道路情況較差,路面較窄,且坎坷不平,綠化很少,自然環境一般,無污染.
XX Township, XX District, belongs to one of the three major residential districts identified by the “10th Five-Year Plan” of XX City. This paper is based on the market research and analysis of the development and operation environment of 125.59 mu of a country in Shiqiao Village, XX District, XX District, and the comparison of the main similar competitive properties in the surrounding area, based on the current market conditions of XX Township in XX District and the future. It is predicted that the project's feasibility and development management plan will be put forward, and combined with the project's characteristic advantages, the project will be analyzed for investment, financial evaluation and risk analysis, in order to explore the possibility of residential development and operation of the site. According to the scheme of this paper, the total construction area of the project is 117,200 square meters, and the total investment of the project is 159,488,500 yuan. The project's financial net present value is 36.201 million yuan, and the project's financial internal rate of return is 27.1%, so the project is economically viable.
[Keywords] XX Garden Project Investment Development and Management
Table of Contents Chapter 1 Preface I. Reporting Objectives II. Reporting Compilation Basis III. Project Overview Chapter II Project Development and Operation Environment Analysis I. Domestic Economy and Real Estate Market Review in 2000 II. XX Real Estate Market Analysis III. Favorable Investment Economic Situation Analysis of the causes of the third chapter of the project surrounding the property market survey and analysis 1, the geographical environment of the investment plot 2, XX regional analysis III, the main property analysis around the project IV, XX township consumer survey analysis Chapter 4 project development and management advantages and opportunities Point analysis I. Real estate investment project development and operation opportunity formation mode II. Project development and management advantage point III. Project development and operation opportunity point Chapter 5 Project orientation I. Target market positioning II. Product positioning Chapter VI Project planning and architectural design proposal Project overall planning proposal II. Residential building design proposal III. Community supporting facilities proposal IV. Environmental art design proposal Chapter VII Project development and operation strategy and investment estimation I. Project development and operation strategy II. Project investment estimation III. Project implementation schedule IV. Project Investment and Fundraising Plan Chapter 8 Analysis of the development status of the project 1. Project sales plan II. Project sales revenue estimation 3. Project operating cost estimation 4. Project profit estimation 5. Project cash flow, financial net present value and financial internal rate of return Chapter IX Project development and operation risk Analysis I. Project Break-even Analysis II. Project Sensitivity Analysis III. Main Risks and Countermeasures of Project Development and Management Chapter 10 Conclusions and Recommendations Chapter 11 Conclusion Chapter 12 Appendix and Main References
Chapter 1 Preface I. Purpose of Reporting
1. Based on the detailed analysis of the project development and operation environment, combined with the location environment of the project, the market value of the land is evaluated reasonably.
2. Put forward preliminary opinions on the feasibility of the project and development and operation planning, and put forward corresponding suggestions for the planning and design of the project, architectural design and environmental art design.
3. Combine the company's situation and project characteristics to explore feasible ways of project development and operation.
4. Conduct investment analysis and risk analysis on the project.
5. Make recommendations for project decision making and optimization of its implementation.
Second, the basis for the preparation of the report
1. Planning plan of the XX Municipal Planning Bureau;
2. Yifang website;
3. Laws and policies related to real estate promulgated by the Ministry of Construction and XX City;
4. XX City 2000 Real Estate Yearbook;
5. Information obtained from site surveys and field surveys.
6. Information provided by Xinhongtai Intermediary Agency of XX City III. Project Overview The plot is located in Shiqiao Village, XX Township, XX District, with a total area of about 125.59 mu, belonging to the three major residential new districts identified by the “10th Five-Year Plan” of XX City. One - XX township residential group is of great significance for the development of new types of housing. According to the requirements of the XX Municipal Planning Bureau, the land has been basically leveled with water and electricity. It has been approved by the Municipal People's Government Wuzhengzizi [2001] No. 2 and can be exempted from the urban infrastructure supporting fees. It is also determined that the main use of the plot is residential land, the plot ratio is not more than 1.4, the building density is 22.5%, and the greening rate is not less than 40%. The main building form is multi-storey, and the building height limit is generally less than 24 meters. It is also allowed to build high-rise buildings, but the proportion should not exceed 20%.
According to the survey analysis and the above information, the project product is positioned as a medium-grade residential new district. The building form adopts a combination type: 60% for multiple floors and 40% for small high-rises, and the main technical indicators of the project are initially determined as follows:
1 Total land area: 8.37 hectares, combined with 125.59 mu.
2 floor area ratio: 1.4
3 total construction area: 117,200 M2
Of which: multi-storey residential: 67,200 M2
Small high-rise residential and villa: 44,800 M2
Public building area: 0.5 million M2
4 building density: 22.5%
5 greening rate: 40%
Chapter II Analysis of Project Development and Operation Environment I. In 2000, the domestic economic and real estate market returned to investment opportunities in the business environment, especially as a basic and leading real estate industry. Therefore, the grasp of the macroeconomic, social and policy environment is the primary concern of every development decision maker.
In 2000, in accordance with the requirements of economic development, China adhered to the principle of expanding domestic demand, continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, vigorously promoted economic restructuring, strengthened the agricultural base, increased the reform of state-owned enterprises and removed the difficulties, and implemented the western region. The development strategy and various measures have been adopted to expand exports. The implementation of these major measures has enabled China's national economy to maintain a relatively fast development momentum and show positive changes. Investment, consumption and export growth accelerated, social demand further recovered, structural adjustment progressed steadily, infrastructure construction was strengthened, economic system reforms made new progress, corporate profits and fiscal revenues increased substantially, and economic operation quality further improved.
At the same time, the construction of real estate in the country started, and the increase in the area of completion was not reduced. According to the information provided by the Bureau of Fixed Assets Investment Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the value of the National Housing Climate Index reached 104.06 points in 2000, an increase of 2.6 points over the previous year, maintaining a rapid rise. Development trend, real estate development has the following characteristics: real estate development investment and in-situ funds continue to grow rapidly; commercial housing sales area and sales revenue growth is strong; average sales price of commercial housing is rising steadily; total construction of commercial housing is expanding; new construction projects are increasing rapidly The efforts of governments at all levels to digest vacant areas have begun to bear fruit, and the vacant area of commercial housing has fallen sharply. The real estate market has shown a booming situation in both production and sales. With the improvement of the national economic situation and the introduction of relevant policies, the funds invested in real estate have increased significantly, the investment structure has further improved, and the real estate industry has shown strong growth momentum. The real estate market also presents the following main features:
National Real Estate Development and Sales
Actually in 2000 compared with the same period of last year +%
Residential investment 3318.7 25.8
Commercial housing new construction area 28295 30.6
Commercial housing completion area 23027.9 16.4
Commercial housing sales area 16984.1 26.9
Commercial housing sales 3571.0 30.1
Of which: sales to individuals 2840.3 51.9
The proportion of total sales is 79.5 --
1. The amount of development investment continues to grow and the investment structure tends to be reasonable. In 2000, the national real estate development completed an investment of 490.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.5%, accounting for 20.2% of fixed assets investment. Among them: the investment in commercial housing development was 331.874 billion yuan, up 25.8% from the previous year.
2. The theme of consumption has changed and the total sales volume has increased year by year. In 2000, individuals purchased 130 million square meters of commercial housing, accounting for 87.51% of the sales area of commercial housing, an increase of 7.9 percentage points over the previous year.
3. Sales prices have risen steadily and consumer credit has continued to expand. In 2000, the average selling price per square meter of commercial housing was 2105 yuan, up 5.98% over the previous year. The average selling price of commercial housing was 1951.6 yuan, up 8.14%. The average selling price of office writing rooms was 4437 yuan, down 7.95%. Commercial business buildings. The average selling price was 3221.18 yuan, up 3.47%. Personal housing loans have doubled every year. The balance of personal housing loans of four commercial banks has grown by 17.4 times in three years. Among them, the balance of personal housing loans of China Construction Bank reached 139 billion yuan at the end of 2000, accounting for 10.6% of the bank's total loan balance. The newly added personal housing loans accounted for 40% of the bank's total loans in the year.
4. The secondary market is becoming increasingly active and the rental market is becoming a climate. The situation of new commercial housing incremental market, second-hand housing trading market and housing rental market has formed a three-point world, which has brought prosperity to the real estate market.
5. Demand conditions have changed and market supply and demand have varied. From the situation reflected by various cities, with the rise of individual housing, the area is small, the design is reasonable, and the fully functional mid-sleeve housing is generally sold well, the environment, greening, supporting, and property management are getting better and better for buyers. Emphasis is placed on the acceleration of innovation in residential products, brand awareness, and brand real estate.
The above information shows that the national giant economic situation is good, the real estate market is also developing steadily, and with the introduction of relevant policies and regulations, it is appropriate to carry out residential investment, which is consistent with the national situation.
Second, XX city real estate market analysis
1. Real estate market in 2000
In 2000, the real estate market situation in XX City was steadily rising and gradually rising. First, the city's total investment in real estate development reached 10.129 billion yuan, up 11.07% compared with 1999; the city's total construction area was 13.43 million square meters, up 3.68% over 1999; the total completed area was 4.5411 million square meters, up 2% from 1999. The completed area of residential buildings reached 3,773,100 square meters, accounting for 83.09% of the total completed area of the city, an increase of 8.6% over 1999; the total sales area of commercial housing in the city was 3,037,600 square meters, of which 2.44 million square meters were occupied, accounting for the total area. 80.33%, sales reached 6.02 billion yuan; vacant commercial housing fell from 1.5 million square meters in 1999 to 1.15 million square meters. Second, in the real estate leasing market, the total number of housing leasing in the city is 19,481, which is 11% higher than that in 1999. The total leased area is 80,150 square meters, which is 17% higher than that of 1999. The total annual rent is 336 million yuan. In 1999, it grew by 52%. Third, in terms of real estate mortgages, the total number of real estate mortgages in the city was 21,647, an increase of 122.8% over 1999, indicating that individual home purchase loans are growing rapidly. The above situation indicates that the economic indicators of real estate giants in XX City began to pick up in 2000, and the real estate market began to enter a growth period, which is changing towards a new booming period.
The personal purchase rate has further increased. The personal purchase rate of commercial housing is an important indicator reflecting the purchasing power of the regional real estate market. In the fourth quarter of 2000, the sales of commercial housing was 800 million yuan, of which the personal purchase was 691 million yuan and the personal purchase rate was 86.43%. It can be seen from the figure that in 2000, the personal purchase rate of commercial housing in XX City continued to rise, reaching the level of 86.43% in the fourth quarter, and the personal purchase rate continued to rise. It also showed that the real estate market is developing well and real estate consumption has been Start-up and continuous growth provide the conditions for the continued rapid development of the real estate market.
Real estate investment has further increased and the investment structure has become more reasonable. In the fourth quarter of 2000, the total real estate investment was 3.579 billion yuan, which was further developed on the basis of the previous quarter. As seen from the left figure, real estate investment in XX city grew very rapidly in each quarter of 2000, showing a large increase, indicating the new growth of the real estate industry. The cycle has arrived, and it can be seen that real estate demand has a strong pulling effect on investment.
Price index in the first quarter of 1941.8 1000
Second quarter 1963 1010.9
Third quarter 2003.93 1031.9
Fourth quarter 2021.66 1041.03
As of November 2000, the city completed residential investment of 2.087 billion yuan, accounting for 58.33% of total real estate investment. In 2000, the total investment of housing in XX city was 7.582 billion yuan, accounting for 85.58% of total real estate investment. The price index of residential property is as follows:
The quarterly XX city residential weighted average price level and price index changes as shown below:
As can be seen from the chart below, residential prices continued to rise in the fourth quarter, but the increase was less than the previous quarter, due to the relatively low residential price base in the second quarter, resulting in a larger increase in residential prices in the third quarter, and residential prices in the third quarter in the fourth quarter. It is difficult to continue to maintain a large increase on the basis of a relatively high base, but the general trend is that residential prices will continue to climb.
2. Market characteristics analysis
2.1 Giant market characteristics: <Yifang.cn>
1. The historic breakthrough in the reform of the housing distribution system has provided the impetus for the development of the real estate market. In 2000, XX City officially entered the commodity era of housing. Since December 31, 1998, the welfare distribution housing system, which has been in existence for more than 50 years, has withdrawn from the historical stage. Instead, the currency distribution system has been replaced, and the commodity attributes of the houses have gradually been restored. After the excessive conversion in 1999, since 2000, the physical housing has been completely stopped, and the concept of welfare housing for residents to wait for, rely on and want has begun to change to commercialization. Before June 30, 2000, anyone who purchases a one-time payment for public housing can enjoy a 20% discount. At the end of 2000, the 10% discount for the one-time payment for the purchase of the existing public housing will also be completed. Zero discount." The housing, the most capital-consuming commodity in people's daily consumption, was fully integrated into the market economy track in 2000.
2. The vacant commercial housing has enhanced digestion. In 2000, the sales of the XX real estate market became warmer, and the market capacity expanded. In addition to absorbing the listed commercial housing, it also digested some of the vacant commercial housing in previous years. In 1999, the vacant commercial housing in XX City was 1.5 million square meters. In 2000, it was added 90,000 square meters. By the end of 2000, there were 1.15 million square meters left. Therefore, in 2000, a total of 440,000 square meters were digested.
3. The construction of affordable housing has achieved good results. In 2000, XX City continued to promote and improve the construction of affordable housing. The construction area of affordable housing for the whole year was 1.95 million square meters, and the completed area was 650,000 square meters, accounting for 17.23% of the total completed area of the city. The annual sales were 1,115,400 square meters, of which pre-sales were 389,600 square meters, and the sales rate exceeded 100%, solved the housing problem of more than 10,000 households, and successively developed a number of large-scale, environmentally-friendly and key economically affordable housing plots such as Baibuting Garden and Huajincheng Garden.
4. The linkage effect of the second and third-tier real estate market has initially appeared. In 2000, the structure of the real estate market in XX City tended to be reasonable, the stock of real estate transactions was significantly enlarged, and the second-hand housing market was more active. According to the experience of developed real estate areas, the active use of the second-hand housing market will directly stimulate the development of the residential primary market. The increase in the sales of stocks does not mean the shrinking of the incremental housing market, but rather the growth of the incremental housing market. The transaction of stocks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has greatly exceeded the transaction of incremental housing, and the transaction of existing housing in XX City is indeed smaller than the transaction of incremental housing. Therefore, the operation space of using the second-hand housing transaction to drive the residential primary market is very large. In 2000, XX City's incremental housing market traded 30010, with a transaction area of 2.44 million square meters, while the stock market transaction reached 27,130 and the construction area was 4,786,200 square meters. The rise of stock trading and the listing of public housing have greatly promoted the gradual consumption demand of the XX real estate market.
Housing primary market housing secondary market residential total number 30010 from 27130 from 57140 construction area 244 square meters 4,786,200 square meters 7,262,200 square meters
5. The financial system has become a solid backing for the real estate industry. Bank: Personal housing loans have been used as the mainstay of real estate loan business, and some banks have raised the upper limit of personal loans to the “80% 30 years” period. In 2000, the city's banks issued personal housing loans totaling 2.917 billion yuan, more than double the total investment of 1.179 billion yuan in the construction sector. In terms of provident fund: the area of purchase of public provident loans accounts for a quarter of the total sales area of the year. In 2000, the newly added housing accumulation fund was 538 million yuan, an increase of 33.94% over 1999. A total of 9,019 individual housing loans were approved, totaling 541 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 97.8%; supporting the purchase of individual housing construction area of 917,600 square meters, the total value of housing reached 1.256 billion yuan.
6. Housing mortgages play a pivotal role in the real estate market. In 2000, the total number of real estate mortgages was 21,647, which was 122.8% higher than that of 1999. This indicates that the number of mortgages has increased, the number of mortgage loans for individual purchases has increased, and the small amount of provident funds has increased. At the same time, the bank has accelerated the speed of lending and the conditions for lending, which plays a very important role in the market finance. At the end of 1999, the XX City Housing Guarantee Company was established. In 2000, 300 guarantee businesses were handled and 40 million yuan of loans were issued, of which 50% were loans for the purchase of new commercial housing and 50% were for housing mortgage financing.
7. Real estate agency services have played a positive role in the launch of real estate second and third grade markets. In 2000, the various housing consumption services carried out by XX City around the accelerated start of the secondary market of housing were very active. The intermediary service field of housing consumption has been greatly expanded, which has played an important role in promoting the prosperity of the real estate market. By the year 2000, a total of 218 intermediaries had spread throughout the city, forming a tangible network of intermediary services. At the same time, at the end of August 2000, the “100 Real Estate Intermediary Organizations Committed to Providing a Joint Declaring Activity for Relief Intermediary” was held. At the end of the year, the rectification work to crack down on illegal intermediaries was carried out, which not only standardized the service behavior of the intermediary market in XX City, but also drove the whole The industry's norms and self-discipline play an important role in the active XX city's second and third-tier markets.
8. The Housing Fair provides an important stage for the active real estate market. In 2000, various districts of XX City jointly organized the “House Fair” to further expand the active housing market. In June and November, two large-scale housing fairs were held in the city. At the same time, the districts did not lose the opportunity to hold district-level housing fairs, which not only promoted the development of the incremental housing market, but also actively promoted the trading of stock houses. According to statistics, in 2000 the city's housing fair, a total of 5662 commercial housing sales, the transaction area of 863,100 square meters, turnover of 1.3 billion yuan; second-hand housing transactions of 1,681, the transaction area of 150,000 square meters, the transaction amount of 130 million yuan; From 1876; 245 mortgages and mortgages.
2. 2 micro market characteristics
1. From the geographical point of view, due to the improvement of the infrastructure facilities of the government in previous years, the environment and road conditions have been greatly improved, so that the investment and sales volume of the surrounding areas are higher than the central area. From the sales situation, the most prosperous is Xu Dong and Hongshan Guanggu. In 2000, there were no more than 10 properties on the Xudong Road, which were very popular and formed a bunch of effects. As a new district of Wuchang, Xudong has become the most annoying area in Wuchang under the influence of the bridge economy, and has become the first choice for Wuchang residents to purchase houses. The same optical valley is also the highlight of the year 2000. It not only brings together a large number of real estates, but also has a first-class humanistic environment. In 2000, the successful listing of Huagong Technology and the frequent economic success of the Optics Valley region, the strong driving force of its purchasing power is the reason for the rapid development of Guanggu Real Estate. With the implementation of the strategic decision of the city to develop Optics Valley, the housing prices in this area are constantly rising.
2. From the perspective of real estate structure and apartment type, the brick-concrete structure has gradually withdrawn from the historical stage. At present, the structure on the market is mainly the structure structure. With regard to the design of the apartment, with the improvement of the quality of life of the citizens, the three-bedroom, two-bedroom and two-bedroom units gradually replaced the market position of the two-bedroom and two-bedroom units and were favored by the market. The area is mostly between 90-120 square meters.
3. From the height of the real estate, the sales of small high-rise real estate began to change, changing the dominant pattern of multi-storey real estate. This is mainly due to the small high-rise real estate with elevators, avoiding the trouble of multiple floors going upstairs. At the same time, compared with the high-rise buildings, it has good ventilation and lighting, good structure and effective use area, so it has become a new sales in 2000. Variety.
4. From the sales situation of the floor, the top-level sales situation is better than that of previous years, mainly due to the breakthrough in technology. Many top-floor sales of real estates have adopted the promotion means of sending attic, so the top floor is more reasonable in space utilization. The price is also slightly lower, which has certain appeal to customers and sales are relatively smooth. For example: the construction of the Millennium Garden, which began sales in November 2000, and the top floor has been fully sold.
5. From the price point of view, the commodity housing of about 2,000 yuan / square meter is the most acceptable to the market, and it is also the most reasonable price for the public to buy commercial housing, while the affordable housing is 100% accepted by the market, and now the average affordable housing in the city The price is between 1300-1400 yuan / square meter.
6. From the perspective of real estate design, the design styles of the open sales in 2000 are different to meet the increasingly demanding individualized demands of the market. In 2000, the whole market has European style, classical style, Chinese and Western styles and other characteristics, which can be described as a hundred flowers. It not only reflects the progress of the market awareness of the development of the city, but also shows the improvement of the level of the architectural design unit.
7. From the perspective of real estate environment, due to the improvement of consumers' demand level and the pursuit of beautiful environment, in 2000, the developers of our city paid great attention to the beautification and improvement of the real estate hard environment. Developers have made greater investments in increasing the green area of the community and creating environmental art in the community. For example, Changqing Garden No. 4 Community, the combination of greening points, lines and planes in the community, the per capita public green space is 3.19 square meters, and the green land rate is 40%. Through the physical gardening landscape, the color and space are used to form a multi-level cultural taste. Driven the sales of the No. 4 community, in 2000, it has sold 180,000 square meters, accounting for more than 50% of the total sales.
8. Judging from the supporting facilities of real estate, in 2000, many developers' real estates were equipped with remote meter reading, triple play, infrared monitoring, convenience store, clubhouse, gym and other facilities, focusing on the needs of the owners and providing a full range of services. Supporting services. For example, Baibuting Garden, not only remote meter reading, triple play, infrared monitoring, convenience store, clubhouse, gymnasium and other basic supporting ones are perfect, the introduction of XX school Yucai National Small Branch, a school, grafted education into the community, Utilize the strong faculty of Yucai to help the owners solve their children’s schooling and education problems.
9. Judging from the selling point of real estate, the real estate sales in 2000 is highlighted by the concept of intelligentization. In fact, the time for this concept to enter XX is not short, but it has not been widely promoted. In 2000, with the “Wisdom Card” played by Lidao Garden, Changqing Garden No. 4 Community and Xuefu Jiayuan, this concept was gradually rooted in the market. The Smart Building Expo, held on November 2-4, 2000, also created a trend toward the concept of “smart”. Wisdom will become an indispensable feature of every property.
10. From the perspective of real estate sales promotion, although the market is in the buyer's market, but consumers have not yet reached the point of rationalization, the effective guidance of the seller will play an important role in the buyer's purchase decision. For example, the Lanwan Junyuan project used a variety of propaganda methods to create a whirlwind of blue bays in Jiangcheng, which made a large number of consumers who had the intention to purchase houses eventually become the owners of Blue Bay.
11. From the perspective of the brand, the real estates of Chengkai, Tongjian, Fuqiang, Kangju, Baibu Pavilion and other enterprises have become the first choice for the public to purchase houses with the characteristics of “purchase peace of mind, quality assured, and comfortable living”.
The overall situation of the XX real estate market in 2000 was very good, but there were some shortcomings. For example, in some areas, there are some problems such as unreasonable price/performance ratio of residential goods. Some developers still have more short-term behaviors that pursue high profits in the process of developing real estate. For example, if the materials are not refined, the building quality is unqualified, and the property is collected. Management fees, etc.
3.3 Classification of property characteristics According to the "Wufang Index" statistics, in the four quarters of 2000, the real estate prices of XX City continued to grow, and the residential and office price indices were as follows:
It can be seen from the above information that in 2000, residential growth was relatively fast, and the growth of office buildings was relatively flat. In general, the development and sales of commercial housing in the city have achieved great development. The sales price and sales volume have grown considerably in one year. The office market has gradually emerged from the shadow of the downturn. The pace is slow but the situation is gratifying. . From the simple regression analysis shown above, the trend of residential, office and composite property indices will continue to rise in the first quarter of 2001.
Residential and residential properties have always been the backbone of the real estate market. Regardless of investment development or sales, it has always been a hot spot in the market. The sales area of residential housing in the city has accounted for 94.5% of the total sales area, and the sales of individual residential houses accounted for the total sales. 94.7% of the area. In the four quarters of 2000, the residential prices in our city were 1945.49 yuan / square meter, 1963 yuan / square meter, 2003.93 yuan / square meter, 2021.66 yuan / square meter, showing a gradual upward trend, the annual average price was 1983.52 yuan / Square meters.
1. The sales of ordinary commercial housing have risen steadily, and the prices of a few projects have been slightly reduced, but they are still hot spots in the market;
2. Affordable housing, good trend, production and sales are booming, is the market's sought-after varieties, the price is 3.1% higher than 1999; the average price of affordable housing in the city is between 1,300 yuan and 1,400 yuan / square meter;
3. The villas and high-end apartment market have a warming trend. With the help of the urban garden and the Lidao Garden, there are signs of rebound. The price has increased by 5.6% compared with 1999, which has become a new market highlight.
Due to the improvement of the economic environment in the office building in 2000, the price of office buildings in the city has increased compared with previous years. In the fourth quarter of 2000, the office prices were 4003.95, 4048, 4058.33, 4070.77 yuan / square meter, the average selling price was 4032 yuan / square meter, and the rental price was 25 yuan / square meter, up 6% from 1999. The characteristics of the office market in 2000 were that the geographical distribution of office buildings affected its price. In 2000, due to the dense area of office buildings turned to the “financial street” of the construction road, the highest average price of office buildings in 2000 was “financial street”. The location of the office building - the price distribution map is as follows:
1. From the Youth Road on the construction boulevard to the Hong Kong Road, it is the most densely populated office building in XX City. It has brought together many high-end office buildings such as Zhaoyin Building, Jianyin Building, New World International Trade Building, Xinhe Building and Ruitong Plaza. The lot is really a prime location in the city, with an average price of 7580 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rent is 60 yuan / square meter, the average occupancy rate is about 60%.
2. The section from Jiefang Avenue to Wusheng Road is also a densely populated section of the city's medium and high-end office buildings, XX Plaza, Taihe Plaza, Zhongyuan Building, Chemical Building and Liangyou Building. The average selling price is 5036 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rent is 33.8 yuan / square meter, the occupancy rate is 55%, retired to the second place.
3. Victory Street to Jianghan Road, along the Yangtze River Avenue. It has gathered office buildings such as Wuxin Building, Jintao Building, Changhang Building and Jinguan Building. The average selling price is 4160 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rental price is 32..8 yuan / square meter, and the occupancy rate is about 50%.
4. Zhongnan Road to Wusong Road. China Merchants Plaza, Development Building, Zhongnan Building, Jiangtian Building, Huitong Building and Asia Trade Plaza, the average selling price of the lot is 4,091 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rental price is 35.9 yuan / square meter, occupancy rate is 70%.
5. Baofeng Road, Hanyang area. The average selling price is 3,810 yuan / square meter, the average monthly rental price is 30 yuan / square meter, the average occupancy rate is about 80%.
After joining the WTO, with the entry of foreign-funded enterprises, some of the vacant office buildings will be digested. Therefore, the office market in the city will be improved. However, the overall strength of the office market will depend on the national economy of the city.
Business service room
In 2000, it has curbed the downward trend and began to rebound and strengthen. Mainly benefited from a series of renovation projects carried out by the municipal government in 2000, such as the transformation of Jianghan Road into a hiking area, the establishment of Hongshan Square, Luxiang Square and Shouyi Square, which brought the department store sales service industry. Huge business opportunities also provide opportunities for the development of commercial service buildings. In 2000, the city opened two new large-scale shopping malls – Zhuangsheng Sogo and Luxiang Shopping Plaza, and the century-old store center department store re-marketing, re-changing the image, and the three stores of Wushang were integrated into a commercial city, which stimulated the business. The demand for commercial service housing has caused the price of commercial service housing to rise. In 2000, Hanzheng Street also proposed a second venture, and all 500 shops in Dajiajie Mall were sold. However, due to the lack of support for commercial housing in some areas, there is no scale, the vacancy phenomenon is still serious, the economic benefits are not good, and the price is very low, such as shops on Xudong Road.
It can be seen from the above information that the real estate market environment in XX City is good, and various properties are developing in a favorable direction, especially residential investment, which will be further developed.
3. Prospects for the real estate market in XX and 2001 in the future
In 2000, real estate prices in Hubei Province emerged from a downturn, showing a trend of rising quarter by quarter. Therefore, 2001 is also an important year for the development of real estate in XX City.
1. In 2001, one of the ten major projects of XX City was that the investment in real estate development reached 10 billion, and the completed area of residential buildings reached 5 million square meters, which indicates that a new real estate economic boom will be launched. In 2001, the development was mainly concentrated in the XX, Changqing, Nanhu, Sixin and Changfeng areas. The distribution of people flow will be dispersed to the periphery of the city. The population and land use of Wuchang, Hankou and Hanyang will be relatively balanced.
2. In 2001, the overall goal of XX city housing reform was to fully implement the monetization of housing allocation, improve the socialization and commercialization of housing, establish a new urban housing system that adapts to the socialist market economy, implement the allocation of housing subsidies, and release purchasing power.
3. Continue to strengthen the construction of affordable housing, and in 2001 XX City will establish an auditing mechanism for affordable housing. The total amount of affordable housing is based on the coordinated development of commercial housing to achieve three controls: one is the audit control of sales targets; the second is to improve the price audit control, and the third is the control of the area standard.
4. In 2001, the tangible market of real estate in XX city and district level will soon be fully completed and interconnected. It will provide a standardized trading venue, provide a large amount of market information, and provide fast trading services, which will play an important role in promoting market circulation.
5. Establish an efficient real estate administrative management system, actively promote the integration of real estate transactions and tenure management, and implement the “Guiding Opinions on Simplifying the Real Estate Transaction and Housing Ownership Registration Procedures” to effectively solve the current number of approval links in real estate transactions and ownership registration. The requirements are complicated and the handling time is too long. Implement a window receipt, a window to issue certificates, simplify the program, reduce fees, and play a positive role in promoting real estate transactions.
6. Standardize property management, clarify pricing principles, pricing methods and price components of property management fees, regulate property management fees and strengthen supervision. At the same time, it revised and improved the original policies and regulations, effectively regulated the property management development and market behavior, and strived to form a systematic and complete property management policy and regulation system.
7. Actively promote the national economy and social informationization process of XX City, start the construction of real estate information and network, support a number of high-tech enterprises like “Yifang.com”, establish, improve and standardize the real estate information consulting service system. Develop e-commerce in the real estate industry.
According to experts' prediction, the general trend of real estate prices in 2001 was rising, but the increase was not strong, showing a "soft rise" status.
The main factors supporting the soft rise are as follows: First, a number of real estate support policies will drive up housing prices. In 2001, these policies that can affect the housing market include: housing allocation system reform, major adjustment of housing supply system, and further development of second-hand housing market. Open, housing finance cultivation and accelerated development, strengthening residential industrialization, and improving the overall quality of housing construction, these policies are very likely to translate the huge potential demand for housing into effective demand.
In addition, the bank's multiple interest rate cuts will also help residents increase their investment in housing. The possibility of housing consumption and the market will expand. In addition, the implementation of relevant financial policy measures will also promote real estate, such as the increase in the country in 2000. The concentration of housing provident fund, focusing on the development of residential portfolio loan business, extending the mortgage period, and improving housing loan guarantees all play a positive role in promoting market digestion and increasing market prices.
Analysis of the Causes of the Investment Economy Situation Analysis of the Impact of the National Giant Economy As of November, China's economy maintained a rapid growth of 8.2%. It is the best year since the Asian financial crisis. The main performances are as follows: In November, the industrial added value of the country was 217.1 billion yuan, up 10.6% from the same month of the previous year, and continued to maintain a relatively fast growth momentum. From January to November, the accumulated industrial added value was 1,212.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% over the same period of the previous year. The growth rate of production of state-owned and joint-stock enterprises exceeds the production growth of collective, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment enterprises, indicating that China's economy has embarked on a healthy development track. The sales rate of industrial products has steadily increased. The sales rate of industrial products in November was 97.42%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points over the same month of the previous year, which was basically the same as the production and sales rate last month. From January to November, the sales rate of industrial products was 97.27%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In the first 11 months, the cumulative export delivery value increased by 26.1% over the same period of the previous year, and it still maintained a rapid growth momentum. In November, the national consumer price level rose by 0.7% from the previous month and by 1.3% from the same month of last year. The cumulative average from January to November, the national consumer price level rose by 0.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the prices of residential goods and services increased by 1.0% and 0.3% respectively from the previous month.
The economic development momentum of XX City is good. Since the beginning of this year, the GDP of XX City has maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. The growth of fiscal revenue due to GDP growth is about 1.3 billion yuan. In October, the state-owned industrial enterprises and non-state-owned industrial enterprises with annual sales income of more than 5 million yuan completed industrial added value of 2.485 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, up 16.35% over the same period of the previous year. Various economic types of industries are competing to grow, and foreign businessmen, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have the highest economic growth. The state-owned economy, the collective economy, the joint-stock economy, foreign businesses, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan economies respectively completed industrial added value of 1.262 billion yuan, 148 million yuan, 566 million yuan and 459 million yuan, up 10.6%, 11.0%, 16.9% over the same period of the previous year. 30.3%; From January to October, the city completed fixed assets investment of 19.343 billion yuan, up 6.7% over the same period of the previous year.其中基本建設完成投資71.28億元，成長3.6%；更新改造完成46.91億元，成長2.9%；房地產完成70.26億元，成長4.9%。消費品市場繁榮興旺，外貿出口大幅成長。對外貿易10月份實現外貿出口3451萬美元，比上年同期成長31.3%，保持較高的成長幅度。截止11月底，全市國有工業企業總產值同比成長14.4%，產品銷售收入成長22.8，實現利稅成長70.9%，實現利潤總額由去年同期的負2億元到今年盈利6.7億元，虧損企業的虧損額由去年同期的7.9億減少到5.4億元。
全國整體房地產市場發育發展情況良好11月，空置面積分類指數值為98.18點，明顯低於去年同期104.82點的水準。 今年前11個月，商品房空置面積的成長速度為11.8%，當月凈增空置面積169萬平方米。 在銷售持續升溫的推動下，商品房銷售價格穩中趨升。截至11月，全國商品房平均銷售價格為每平方米2091元，同比成長2.2%，是下半年以來的最高增幅。其中，商品住宅銷售價格為每平方米1962元，比前10個月增加47元。 今年，房地產開發投資明顯快於同期基本建設和更新改造投資成長速度。今年前11個月，全國完成房地產開發投資3744.3億元，同比成長24.11%，增幅比去年同期提高3.7個百分點，房地產開發投資佔固定資產投資比重達20.6%。 受房地產開發與銷售快速成長的影響，土地開發面積明顯高於去年同期。前11個月，全國累計土地開發面積5337萬平方米，同比成長36.9%。
積金歸集、商業銀行住房貸款的有力支持據統計，今年全市公積金歸集額為5億元，超過政府4.5億的目標，公積金使用4.86億元，截止今年，公積金歷年累計歸集額為22億元。另外，商業銀行住房貸款的程式簡化、貸款額度的加大及貸款年限的延長都為啓動房地產市場個人消費創造了條件。
在充分的資料基礎上，綜合上述房地產投資環境分析和經濟形式成因分析，可得出結論：國家巨觀經濟形式是可喜的，與房地產有關的政策和法規有利於房地產市場的進一步發展和活躍，因此可以說XX花園項目在投資機會選擇決策、地段選擇決策這兩個方面是有充分科學根據的。
第三章項目周邊物業市場調查分析項目調查是可行性研究工作的基礎，是在地域選擇後進行的多項生活指標的調查。本次調查分析主要是針對擬投資地塊的地理環境，XX地區區域房地產市場，地區既有的生活消費條件，XX地區住宅消費者等幾個方面的調查，為項目的可行性分析和研究提供充實的研討依據。
該項目位於XX區XX鄉，現在先對XX區房地產市場作簡要的概述。下圖表是XX區2000年的房地產價格和指數：
XX區價格XX區指數一季度2218.78 1000
二季度2227.38 1003.876
三季度2223.24 1002.86
四季度2226.24 1003.2
2000年第四季度XX區的價格指數走勢由上季度的下跌轉變為小幅上揚，但指數仍沒有達到二季度高度，因為XX區的房地產價格水準在XX市是屬於較高的，而今年房地產開發大多集中在江南地區，使得該區的住宅價格徘徊不前，XX區由於自然條件的限製使得住宅開發投資大部分都分布在中北部地區，建設大道南北，台北路、香港路一帶，是房地產開發投資較集中的地帶，主要原因是該地區的建築密度較小，交通便利，距離中央商業區較近，這一代擁有台北花園、台南花園、德富花園、澎湖高級公寓、台北花苑，碧波公寓、國信城園林小區等眾多的住宅小區。位於高雄路的國信城園林小區，1998年5月開盤，目前已屬尾房，但第四季度以2350元/平方米的現房價格出售了4500平方米，銷售業績較好。
XX、竹葉山一帶也是該區房地產投資的熱點地區之一，這一地帶是相對較偏的地段，根據“城市空心化”的理論，離市中心區有一定的距離，自然環境較好，並且有開發大片住宅小區的條件，是未來最適合居住的地區之一。這一帶已經有佳海華苑別墅、竹葉山花園、XX生態花園等住宅小區。這一地區在未來升值的可能性較大。位於該地區的東方恆星園，本季度期房銷售價格為1886元/平方米，低於XX區的均價，本季度銷售了1.65萬方。
一、 投資地塊的地理環境土地是不可再生資源，一個項目的土地價值是有多種因素綜合作用的結果。土地所處的地理位置，周邊的自然環境，人文環境，市政配套及臨近樓盤的品質等，決定了此地塊大部分的市場家者，因此，我們首先從地塊環境入手調查分析。
1.土地性質及地理位置綜述地塊面積：凈用地面積8.37公頃，近似平行四邊形，周邊主要有水塘，菜地和村鎮建設用地構成，較平整。
該地塊位於XX區XX鄉石橋村，遠為農田，整個地塊較平整，無丘陵，小山包，且地塊的延伸四周也大致是一望平原，地塊周圍有叫多的村莊，主要有石橋村，塔子湖村，新春村；還有成片的採地和零星的湖面分布在地塊周圍。
2.地塊自然景觀及環境質量
2.1自然環境該地塊整體來看屬於平原地區，空氣較好，無大型污染，植被水系豐富。
以下為地塊四個方向的環境情況：
1.南向遠望是一條長條沿路而建的現代化建築，能隱約感受到大都市生活，京廣鐵路從旁邊橫貫而過，由遠及近是大片開闊地帶，無障礙物，臨近的XX大道平行延展，該方向上因有一高壓輸電線路沿XX大道方向鋪設，使得該方向上無論近看或遠望的視線都被幹擾，另外區域環境因建設公路略有空氣和噪音污染。
2.北向北面遙望張公堤，成片的草地，帶狀的防護林區沿堤分布，大片的湖泊，蓮池密布，自然村落散布其間，湖水清澈，空氣清新，寧靜而美麗，但近處有零星的小村落削弱了景色。
3.東向遠方較開闊，中部為建設中的東方恆星園，近處的竹葉山路邊為商鋪，工棚映入眼簾，黃孝河平行流過，隱約有河水淤積下來的異味。
4.西向西對姑嫂樹路，進處無高層建築，視野開闊，遠眺現代都市居民區，隱約可見正在施工的新華家園，自然村落和耕田水塘由遠及近步入視野，也是因大道的施工沿路有灰塵。
2.2項目周邊情況我們選擇以在地塊為中心，南至五幹道，北至張公堤附近，東西以姑嫂樹路和岱黃公路兩側為界，集中調查。
1.地形地貌狀況
2.物業形態劃分圖
3.局部放大圖附圖說明
1.岱黃公路一帶區域調查自然環境：該帶為平原地段，靠近黃孝河，兩旁不遠處有若幹小湖，附近的村落有石橋村，塔字湖村，新春村，都屬於XX鄉。XX鄉鄉政府靠近竹葉山路，距石橋村不到500米。附近設有成片的自然林或人工林，惟有路兩旁不多的樹林，大車過後，塵土飛揚，該地段綠化較差，但也沒有什麽大型的污染源。
社會環境：道路路面狀況較差，經常有載貨的大卡車經過，到市內的交通不便利，沿線隻有716一路公交。地段入口處有大東門客運站，有許多通向周圍縣市的長途客車。水電氣的基礎建設均以到位，電話線已鋪設，但沒有網路線和有線電視線。路邊附近有2-3個門診部，有中國信合，農行等金融機構的分點。石橋村對面有華中高級中學，但距石橋村較遠。沒有大型的娛樂場所，隻有幾家小型的撞球廳。
人文環境：沿路兩旁的居民來自不同的地方，主要是石橋村，塔字湖村等附近的村落。另外還有武昌，漢口，漢陽的居民到此打工。同時有黃陂等附近區縣的居民。他們大多是出外打工來到這裏，租用當地居民的住房，沿路地帶和石橋村大概有2-3千人。居民的房屋大體為2-3層，比較簡陋。
經濟環境：有一大型鋼材市場，路兩旁一直到石橋村居民的收入水準不等，屬石橋村的居民每年固定有1000-1500元的收入，來源於村辦企業，承包隊，出租房。另外村民可選擇在路兩旁租商鋪，發展第三產業，或在一些私人辦的公司打工，如XX新基業混凝土有限公司等，他們的收入較高，每月有1000元左右的收入，另外有些較大的公司都有集體宿舍，員工來在各處，有的住在二七路。
此處在地塊東北方向的村落屬於石橋村六隊，該隊共有60戶，約250人，村民主要以種田，打工，出租房為生。對村大隊而言，收入主要以“賣地”為主，收入該居民發放補助，基本上每戶居民為4000-5000元/年。該村交通不發達，國小，中學都比較遠。居民主要以石橋村人為主，有一些來自黃陂等地區的打工者。工廠很少，隻有幾個村民自辦的個體小企業。僱員多為本村居民，村民自建房多為二層樓房，建築面積約400平方米左右，很多房子由外來者租住，該村的水電，通訊等都不完善，綠化狀況較差，周圍有很多廢墟空地，基礎設施和公共設施都不完善。
2.塔字湖村至張公堤路段調查自然環境：沿線區域自然風景較好，多湖泊村莊釣魚台，無污染，空氣清新，景色怡人。沿張公堤路段以綠地，防護林區和湖面次第構成，地勢平坦；塔子湖路段屬平原地區，沿路自西向東依次分布新春村，塔字湖村。周邊以菜地，耕地為主，零星分布水面，石橋村路段基本同上。
社會環境：該區域位於XX區邊緣。縱有張公堤，橫有竹葉山路，內為塔子湖路段，交通便利，有726，69路公車。給排水設施齊備，供電設施相對不足，但具備發展條件，有待進一步建設，通訊便捷，暖氣設施有待進一步開發建設，有液化汽供應站。
經濟環境：該區域人口經濟實力不強，居民收入水準普遍不高，工礦企業大都以民營，私人企業為主，現達到大都處於半停產狀態，但私營企業仍具相當活力。商業，金融業，服務業仍處於落後的萌芽狀態，有銀行，合作社零星分布其間。當地居民收入差距較大，新春村，塔字湖村平均月收入在1500元左右，主要以房屋出租，村辦工廠承包，打工，養殖為主。
3.姑嫂樹路段調查沿漢興路至張公堤段,交通便利,有560,711,805,71,527,35,41路公交線路經過,物業基本為三層商住樓,底層為商鋪,樓上為住房。商業發達,相關的銀行,醫院診所,國小,中學設施齊全,有漢興學校,XX市第七十一中學設在該區域,但環衛,綠化,無了設施仍停留在相當低的水準。居民以本村居民為主,外地人佔小部分,村居民收入來源以出租房屋,商鋪,打工為主。區域內有祥龍實業,華美生活鍋爐製造廠,紅岩汽車XX銷售公司等為民營及私營企業.沿路可視園丁苑、富康花園等已入住的居民小區。
沿張公堤段以居民區為主,零星間隔有林區和小塊菜地,無商業門面,有兩個工廠及XX新世界畜禽水產市場。沿線有35路車通行,基礎設施,公共設施相對滯後。姑嫂樹路段以民營,私營工廠為主,大都處於半停產狀態,另外該區域內設有XX市勞教所,戒毒所。居民收入主要以經營釣魚台,打工,出租房屋為來源.道路情況較差,路面較窄,且坎坷不平,綠化很少,自然環境一般,無污染.
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