Feasibility Study of a Real Estate Development Project in XX City

First, the project background
1. Project Name: Donghu Road People's Bank Residential Community
2. Basis for the preparation of the feasibility study report:
"Code for Planning and Design of Urban Residential Areas"
"A City Urban Demolition Management Regulations"
"Regulations on the Establishment of Public Service Facilities in Urban Residential Areas"
Residential Design Code
Residential Building Design Standards
"Construction Engineering Traffic Design and Parking Lot Setting Standards"
Urban Road Greening Planning and Design Specification
"Code for Fire Protection Design of High-rise Civil Buildings"
3. Project overview
1) Location of the plot: The base starts from Baiyang River in the east, Jianshe East Road in the south, Donghu Road in the west and the People's Bank in the north. The land area in the enclosed area is about 28,333 square meters. The land belongs to the second-class area of ​​Chizhou. .
2) Construction scale and objectives:
Land area: 42.5 acres floor area ratio: 2.2
Development period: 3 to 4 years Land price: 5000 yuan / mu Building area: Total building area: 61460m2
3) The surrounding environment and facilities are about 10 minutes walk to Aqiu Road and Changjiang Road in downtown A.
The west side is the city center of A city, Baihu Lake.
The east side is the Qingxi River urban green belt, and the south side is the urban green square.
The southwest is close to the city of A, the city of Guan.
To the north is the People's Bank of City A.
4. Project SWOT Analysis Advantages and Opportunities The project is located in the most promising area of ​​City A, and the surrounding environment will be the best residential area in Chizhou in the near future.
The pace of economic development and municipal construction in recent years has made the real estate in the region have a large appreciation space. The successful development of the Huijing Garden in the east provides market recognition for the price positioning of the region. The gradual formation of the increasingly mature living facilities and the commercial atmosphere of the “Baihe Commercial Walking Area” has laid a certain foundation for the retail price of the project.
The demolition of local residents chooses a large proportion of local relocation, which has a certain mitigation effect on the capital flow pressure of the project. The project is sold at Maoji, starting at 5,000 yuan/mu, which makes the initial funds for the land parcel less. The project is planned to be the first small high-rise residential community in City A. The experience of our company in developing small high-rises in B city can be used as a mirror.
The background of good public relations between our company and the government and construction authorities of City A is conducive to the future development of our company in the local area.
The property management company first intervened in the city A, and has certain advantages and complementarities for the property management of the project in the future.
The difficulty of demolition has made the funds in the field worry, which has created certain opportunities for us to obtain this bid.
Disadvantages and threats to demolition density are too large, and the cost and risk of demolition are the key to the success of the project.
The implementation rules for the demolition of City A will be introduced soon, and the prediction of demolition costs has certain risks. The demolition and construction of municipal facilities has a certain uncertainty due to the uncertainty of its standards. The involvement of Jiangsu and Zhejiang funds may cause the listing price of the land to rise too high.
In the planning, the positioning of the residential land for the plot, whether the commercial planning can be passed in the future, has certain uncertainty.
The formation of a small high-rise living concept, property management fees, elevator operation and maintenance, etc., will bring certain resistance to future sales.
Most of the residents of the plot are secondary demolition, plus the Beijing self-immolation incident of a county in A city, the demolition is more difficult. Huijing Garden is becoming more and more perfect, and it is a multi-storey residential building. The competition with this project will be fierce. The difficulty of demolition makes the construction period of the project have the possibility of extension.
The surrounding living facilities and transportation are not perfect.
Second, market analysis
1 A city overview
City A is located on the south bank of the Yangtze River, with an area of ​​8271 square kilometers and a population of 1.53 million.
Excellent ecological environment. There are national-level forest parks, national-level wildlife protection areas - yak drop, national waterfowl wetland protection area - Shengjin Lake. The city's forest coverage rate reached 56%. In 1996 and 1997, it was approved by the state as a national eco-economic demonstration zone and a local pilot for the implementation of China's Agenda 21. The investment environment is good. The transportation and communication are convenient. The highway has formed a transportation network with national highways, provincial highways and riverside highways as the skeleton. The water transportation is the hub of the Yangtze River, the important port of the Yangtze River. It has a national open port and has an annual design capacity of 5 million. Ton, the first phase of the Agang Nguyen Xingang District project has started; communication has formed a variety of communication methods and multi-functional communication service networks based on digital transmission and program-controlled exchange; the Beijing-Kowloon Railway, the Yanjiang Expressway, and the Jiujiang Expressway The Yellow Highway and other projects have been approved by the state, and will be fully started from 2002 to 2003. The Yangtze River Bridge was started construction at the end of 2001. The project area is located on the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It borders with B City, Nanlian and Huangshan. It is the city's ***, economic and cultural center. The total area of ​​the district is 2,516 square kilometers, with a population of 620,000. It administers 8 townships, 13 towns and 4 sub-district offices. The urban population is 120,000.
2 A city real estate housing market analysis
From the beginning to the development of the real estate industry in A city, it has gone through three stages: from 1988 to 1993, it was the first stage. The housing construction was mainly based on housing. The housing built was mostly welfare, the commoditization rate was low, and the real estate industry was at Budding state. From 1994 to 1998, the second stage, the behavior of unified construction was gradually disappeared, and the development of commercial housing gradually emerged. Since 1999, it has been the stage of development and standardization of the real estate industry. Taking the transformation of the old city of the south gate of the city's south gate and the development of the Cuiweiyuan community as a starting point, a new round of urban construction was set off. Especially after the land reform, the pace of urban infrastructure construction has accelerated, the population and scale of urban built-up areas have expanded rapidly, and urban construction and real estate development have been positively interacted, and the real estate market has entered an orderly development period. So far, the real estate industry in the city of A has basically realized the entrepreneurial task and completed the original accumulation. The quality of residential housing has improved significantly, the industrial structure has become more rational, and the market system has been basically established.
In 2003, the main characteristics of the real estate industry in the city A are shown in the following aspects:
One of the performance: the investment growth is large. Real estate development investment completed 460 million yuan, investment growth rate reached 33.4%, accounting for 65% of the city's construction system investment, accounting for 12.6% of the city's fixed assets investment.
Performance 2: Market supply and sales are booming. Completion of commercial housing area in the main city
204,000 square meters, sales area of ​​220,400 square meters, digestion of vacant houses 20,000 square meters. The per capita housing construction area of ​​the city has reached 26 square meters.
Performance three: house prices rose steadily. The price of commercial housing in urban areas increased by 17% compared with last year, and the net increase was around 400 yuan/m2. Performance 4: The trading market continues to heat up. The city handled a total of 11,200 real estate transactions throughout the year. A city has handled a total of 7,938 real estate transactions, with an area of ​​896,200 m2, up 25% and 35% respectively over the previous year. Among them, 2,305 stocks were sold, with an area of ​​244,000 m2 and a turnover of 88 million yuan.
Performance 5: The economic effect is significant. The added value of the real estate industry accounted for 14% of the city's GDP growth, driving the relevant industry output value of 887 million yuan, driving social goods sales of 616 million yuan; the real estate industry turned over the state tax of 28 million yuan. Forecast for future markets:
---——From the perspective of purchasing capacity, with the economic growth, the disposable income of urban residents has increased year by year. From 2001 to 2003, the disposable income of urban residents rose from 5222 yuan to 6028 yuan. Despite the large increase in house prices last year, the consumer market remained hot. ——From the perspective of investment, due to the long-term downturn in the stock market, bank interest rates have been lowered several times, and the real estate industry has significant value-preserving and value-added functions, making the real estate market an important area of ​​investment. Coupled with the support of bank credit, it has greatly stimulated the demand of the market. At present, the proportion of commercial housing purchased through mortgage loans is 42%, with an annual increase of 16%.
——From the perspective of consumption structure, with the development of the real estate market, the concept of residential housing consumption has undergone significant changes. People can no longer be satisfied with the traditional concept of “enough to live on the line”, and the demand for improved housing is more obvious. Housing consumption is shifting from “residential” to “enjoyment”. The consumer groups of secondary and tertiary homes have gradually expanded. According to the survey, more than 95% of the purchasers of Huijing Garden Phase I have changed their houses.
——From the perspective of demand, according to the overall urban planning, the urban built urban area will grow from 14.6 square kilometers to 27.8 square kilometers, and the urban population will increase from 120,000 to 300,000. Without considering the effective purchasing power, from the housing demand analysis, the housing demand driven by the annual population growth of City A, combined with the purchase demand of urban migrants and urban demolition needs, will provide a broad space for real estate development.
3. Analysis of the details of the residential community in the main competitive projects:
Project unit number of building area average unit price Huijing International Garden 1500 22 1400 Lakeside Road Biheyuan 78 5.8 1344 Jianzhong Road Hehua Village 170 1460 Jianshe Road Taoyuan Community 130 1400 Qiupu Road Qiupu Garden 500 6.9 1508 Details of some commercial outlets of Changjiang Road Project area m2 Unit price yuan/m2 Location Huijing International Garden 40~~80 4000~5600 New Town Qiupu Garden 50~~70 5000~12000 Downtown Biheyuan 36~~50 6800 Jianshe Road Taoyuan Community Garage 550 Qiupu Road Lotus Garden Garage 550 Construction Road III. Project Financial Analysis and Demolition Cost Analysis The houses in the enclosed area are brick-concrete structures, including 4 5-story residential buildings. Other houses are two-four floors. According to the attached file and the on-site verification, the area of ​​the house to be demolished in the enclosed area: 34,329 square meters of residential buildings and 600 square meters of commercial buildings, with a total of 205 households. Most of the household components are demolished from urban houses to this health room. More than 90% of the households have land certificates, planning building permits, housing property certificates, single-family water and electricity meters. Have a certain experience in house demolition. Demolition cost estimate:
According to the provisions of the “Interim Measures for the Management of Urban House Demolition” of City A and the estimation of compensation standard currency demolition.
1, residential: 640 yuan / square meter ** 34329 square meters = 34329 * 819.20 yuan = 28122316.80
yuan
2, operating room: 640 yuan / square meter ** 600 square meters = 600 square meters * 3776 yuan / square meter = 2265600 yuan
3, the attached house 34,329 square meters * 45 yuan / square meter = 1544,805 yuan for business use: 600 square meters * 45 yuan / square meter = 27,000 yuan
4, interior decoration: 34,929 square meters * 80 yuan / square meter = 2794,320 yuan
5, attic, fenced floor, etc.
34,929 square meters * 48 yuan = 1676,592 yuan moving expenses, temporary transition fee:
1. Moving expenses:
Housing: 200 households * 300 yuan = 60000 yuan for business use: 9 households * 500 yuan = 4,500 yuan Subtotal: 64,500 yuan
2. Transition fee:
Residential: 34,329 square meters * 2.5 yuan / square meter * 6 months = 514,935 yuan for business use: 600 square meters * 16 yuan / square meter * 6 months = 57,600 yuan Subtotal: 632,535 yuan other expenses
3. Management fee, commissioned demolition fee:
34,929 square meters * 15 yuan / square meter = 523,935 yuan
4. House demolition evaluation fee: 35,000 yuan
5. Awards:
34,929 square meters * 100 yuan / square meter = 3,492,900 yuan All the above fees subtotal: 38,533,208 yuan, the amount of compensation per square is 1101.18 yuan.
According to the No. 9 Order of the Municipal People's Government of A City, the house demolition in the urban area of ​​City A can still be implemented in the first half of 2003. The “Procedures for the Management of Urban House Demolition” will be implemented after July 1, 2003. The demolition of urban houses in city A is very difficult. In particular, the national climate policy for urban house demolition has tilted toward the demolished people, and the judicial forced demolition has basically ceased. In addition, the municipal housing demolition management method will be introduced soon, and its benchmark price is expected to be raised by 100 yuan/square meter on the original basis. The cost of demolition is expected to be:
1103.18 yuan / square meter +100 yuan / square meter = 1203.18 square meters
1203.18 yuan *34929 square meters = 42025874.2 yuan construction cost analysis The preliminary planning plan for the construction scale of the land parcel, two two-storey network points along Donghu Road, covering an area of ​​50*10*2=1000m2, Building area: 2000m2.
The main entrance is located between the two outlets of Donghu Road, and the secondary entrance is located next to the bridge of the East Road near Huijing Community. A two-story podium is built along Jianshe East Road. The form is basically the same as S small high-rise. Three 12-storey houses are built on the podium. The podium covers an area of ​​110*15*2=3300m2, and the three 12-story residential building area: 29.4*13.8 *12 floors*3 buildings=14606m2, total construction area: 17906m2. A 15-layer 29.4*13.8*15 floor is arranged in the plot;
A 12-story 29.4*13.8*12 floor;
Three 12-storey 40*15*12 floors;
A 15 layer 40*15*15 floor;
Site area: 3211m2, building area: 41554m2
Total floor area: 5861m2, building density: 20.7%
Total building area: 61,460 m2, floor area ratio: 2.17
The upper floors are designed with a basement area of ​​4,861 m2 and a total of 297 households.
Construction cost estimate, pre-project fee:
1. Demolition costs
2. Land transfer fee
3, urban infrastructure supporting costs: 61460m2 * 50 yuan / m2 = 3.073 million yuan
4. Civil Air Defense Fund: supporting the construction of the basement
5. Planning technical service fee: 56160*1.4+5300*2.2=9.03 million
6, wall change: 61460 * 8 = 49.168 million yuan
7, bulk cement: 61460 * 2 = 12,290 yuan
8, termite control costs: 61460 * 2 = 12,290 yuan
9, quality supervision fee: 61460 * 2 = 12,296 yuan
10, construction drawing review: 61460 * 1 = 61,500 yuan
11, lightning protection review: 61460 * 1 = 61,500 yuan
12. Fire protection review:
13, cultural relics: 0.2 million yuan
14, planning and design: 100,000 yuan
15. Architectural design: 2000*12+59460*30=1.878 million yuan
16, geological exploration: 61460 * 2 = 12,290 yuan
17, measurement positioning: 100,000 yuan
18, gas capacity: 2,500 yuan / household
19. Water supply pipe network supporting fee: 20 yuan / m2
Subtotal: 6,277,300 yuan of engineering cost
1. Pile foundation: 59460*100 yuan/m2=5.946 million yuan
2, basement: 4861 * 600 yuan / m2 = 2,916,600 yuan
3. Main body: 59460*900+2000*500=5451.4 million
4, the elevator: 9 * 500,000 yuan / building = 4.5 million yuan
5, outdoor water and electrical engineering: 61460 * 50 = 30.73 million yuan
6, outdoor projects such as community greening, roads, etc.: 61460*60=368.76 million yuan
7. Supervision fee: 6337.66*1%=63.38 million Subtotal: 75.271 million yuan total, 81.505 million yuan Project cost analysis based on the principle of combining comparative pricing and market pricing, the budget for the project is:
Small high-rise residential building 1900 yuan / m2 shop 6000 yuan / m2 underground garage 800 yuan / m2
Sales income residential 1900*56160=106704000
Shop 6000*5300=31800000
Basement 4861*800=3888800
Total: 142,392,800 yuan business tax and additional 142,392,800 * 5.5% = 7831604
Various expenses 142392800*4%=5695712
Total cost: demolition cost + construction cost + tax + cost + land cost = 42025874.2+81550300+7831604+5695712+X =137103490.2
Gross profit: sales revenue - total cost
=142392800-137103490.2=5289309.8 Yuan Conclusion: If the land listing bid is less than 5.28 million, the project has a certain profit margin and the project is feasible. If it is exceeded, the project is risky and the project is not feasible.