Inspirational story: Shortcuts are sometimes a detour

Inspirational story: Shortcuts are sometimes a detour

In 1950, after the outbreak of the Korean War, the Pentagon listed all military material purchase plans as confidential files, which could have ruined some investors. Because many investors want to predict the impact of the preparation plan on the stock market, and want to correctly predict the impact of the preparation plan on the stock market, we must know the US government's demand for raw materials, especially for aluminum, copper and steel.

The National Federation of Industry also wants to know this, but in a highly confidential situation, knowing this is harder than going to heaven. Just when the National Federation of Industry was unable to do anything, a young man volunteered to stand up and let him try. The young man was Greenspan. He was only 24 years old and had not graduated from New York University. He only came to the investment institution as a part-time investigator to pay high tuition fees. The boss couldn't find other suitable people, so he had to hold the psychological test and let him go.

To know the US government's demand for raw materials, especially aluminum, copper and steel, just look at the relevant US files, this is the most convenient route. But this is impossible. Because of this, in the large institutions of the National Federation of Industry, although there are talented people, no one is willing to investigate this. How to do it? Greenspan thought of 1949. At that time, the Korean War had not yet erupted. The military conference was held at the time of the hearing, so there was no confidentiality. As a result, he spent a lot of energy researching the news reports and government announcements over the past year, knowing that the size and equipment of the US Air Force in 1950 and 1949 were basically the same. From the records of 1949, he learned how many aircraft in each battalion, the model of the new fighter, the number of backup fighters, and then estimated the amount of loss. With these, you can basically predict the demand for each type of fighter during the Korean War.

Knowing the demand for each type of fighter, Greenspan also found technical reports and engineering manuals from various aircraft manufacturers, and plunged in. Although it is difficult for him, after a period of study, he still knows how much raw materials such as aluminum, copper and steel are needed for each type of fighter, and then easily according to the demand of each fighter. Calculated the total demand for raw materials by the US government.
After careful calculation, Greenspan wrote two long reports, such as Air Force Economics, which were published in the Economic Record, which had great influence at the time. Because the figures he calculated were very close to the numbers in the US government's confidential archives at the time, they brought a lot of returns to many investors.

With this success, Greenspan has aroused the attention of many people and laid a solid foundation for his future glory. In 1987, Greenspan was the chairman of the Federal Reserve and was re-elected four times. The term of office is extremely rare in the history of the Fed. What is even more commendable is that during Greenspan’s tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve for more than 18 years, the US economy has experienced a record period of 10 years of continuous growth, with only two moderate recessions in the middle.

The story of Greenspan explains a simple truth: in many cases, the shortest and most convenient way is not necessarily a shortcut, because walking this road may not be successful. On the contrary, a seemingly curved road, although it may take a lot of effort, but only such a way, it is possible to let us reach the culmination of success. Shortcuts are sometimes a detour.